Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
The highest positive leverage offered at captain in most runs came from Will Lutz, who routinely had upwards of 10% leverage over projected ownership. Other players that showed up frequently as viable captains were Javonte Williams, Russell Wilson, and TJ Hockenson.
The highest negative leverage offered at captain in the simulations belongs to KJ Osborn, who was routinely -5% given and was rarely in the positives at all. Other options that were routinely lower in the exposures than the projected ownership were Greg Joseph and Jordan Addison.
Basically, the Broncos look like the team to utilize in the captain while the Vikings are frequently overvalued.
FLEX ownership distributions
By far the highest positive leverage offered at the FLEX is Russell Wilson, who shows up in the winning lineups in contest sims there at nearly twice his projected ownership. After him, Joshua Dobbs and Will Lutz are the most consistently positive leverage options on the slate.
The most consistently negative leverage options at FLEX are Alexander Mattison and KJ Osborn. Both are typically 10% overvalued based on the contest sims and didn’t show up as positive leverage in any of the runs I did.
A runner up for negative leverage offered is Jerry Jeudy, who I think hit on Ciara and now Russell Wilson doesn’t fuck with him. Tough scenes.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
That is a lot of Will Lutz at captain! He makes for a strong option, but he’s likely to come with a lot of duplicates so you’ll need to be careful about how you build with him. Both Kickers look like they will carry heavy dupes as people use them to jam in the main FLEX combo.
That combo, by the way, looks to be: Dobbs/Wilson/Hockenson/Javonte Williams. With the way that these offenses are distributed, this isn’t much of a surprise. The thing I’ll say is that the Broncos receiving options are not garnering enough ownership, as we don’t see much Sutton/Jeudy in the top owned combos, so focusing on a legit DEN passing attack rather than using Javonte Williams is probably the best route to manage dupes.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This showdown…. Kind of sucks? The fantasy relevant options for both sides are kind of meh and will carry big ownership, and both offenses are capable enough that the DSTs are likely overowned. Both kickers are demanding ownership and both deserve it. Slates like this are rough because the best way to build is likely the right way and it still feels shakey.
The best way to handle slates like these is typically just to play smaller field contests and make smart pivots. If people are jamming in that core combo of Dobbs/Williams/Russ/Hockenson, just make sure that you avoid one of those four and use the others. If people are jamming in kickers at captain, use them at FLEX instead and pay up at captain to give yourself a better shot at a unique construction path.
For me personally, I think a DEN passing attack OR a DEN shutdown 5-1 make the most sense. The DEN DST is going to be relatively underowned based on Dobbs history, and the betting markets are probably overvaluing him because of the heroics last week. Correlating the DEN DST with Javonte Williams and only using either Hockenson or Addison as a come back seems like it could play well.
If you would rather play for a higher scoring affair, playing with Courtland Sutton captain and fading Javonte Williams makes the most sense to me. Fill that in with Russell Wilson, Joshua Dobbs, and TJ Hockenson at the FLEX and play some weir low priced punts to mitigate dupes.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Greg Jospeh
- Jordan Addison (CPT)
- Kicker captains
Some players that look undervalued:
- Denver 5-1 stomps
- Denver DST
- Russell Wilson FLEX
Good luck and bink a unique
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