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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Giants vs. Cowboys

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

  • Spread out exposure gives a lot of variability for cheap options
  • Secondary DAL options look overvalued, opening the door for 5-1 NYG builds
  • Dupes should be relatively low tonight outside of the cavemen playing the optimal in GPPs

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain ownership distributions

There are a lot of players mostly valued correctly at captain tonight and there there is Daniel Jones, who looks considerably undervalued. His exposure in the contest simulation winners is 22% while his projected ownership is just 12.37%, by far the widest margin on the board. When it comes to negative differentials, the largest is Michael Gallup at -4.64% overvalued. Gallup, Cooks, and Waller all look like captains that are better off avoided.

FLEX ownership distributions

When we take a look at the FLEX distributions, it's the other QB (Prescott) who ends up with the most positive leverage. He projects at 47% owned as a FLEX play and his exposure in sim winners is 67%, a clean 20% edge offered. Graham Gano and interestingly enough Gary Brightwell look to off quite a bit of edge as FLEX options as well. Michael Gallup is the largest negative value here, showing that he is overvalued as a whole tonight.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

  • On Thursday we had a free square with Patrick Mahomes, but we don't have that luxury tonight as the highest exposure player is Dak Prescott at just 79% in CPT+FLEX
  • All of the cheap options are undervalued, which speaks to the uncertainty of this game based on projections around the industry, and opens up a lot of optionality.
  • More of the DAL players are overvalued than NYG, which could lead to some NYG/DAL 5-1 builds to be unique

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Of a sampling of the highest owned optimals for tonight, Graham Gano captain takes up a handful of slots mixed with guys like Vaughn, Aubrey, and Brightwell. People will likely be mix and matching a lot of different combos tonight because of the said uncertainty up above. That means you won't have to worry as much about duping so long as you aren't just playing the optimal like a mouth breather.

All this considered, party hard and do your thing.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

We lost all our money on the main slate, so now it's time to make it all back on a super variant showdown slate. No excuses, play like a god.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Michael Gallup
  • Darren Waller
  • Jake Freguson

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Daniel Jones (CPT)
  • Dak Prescott (FLEX)
  • Gary Brightwell

Good luck and bink a unique!

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