Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
- The highest positive leverage on the slate at captain goes to Greg Zuerlein and/or Garrett Wilson
- The highest negative leverage on the slate at captain goes to Davante Adams
Running this a handful of times, we do see Jakobi Meyers as a significantly negative leverage more often than not, along with Davante Adams. We also see both kickers, Breece Hall, and Zach Wilson all up in the highest positive leverage in certain runs. The moral of the story here is mostly that the Jets are undervalued in this spot even if Zach Wilson is a fucking trash can with a nice smile.
It’s worth saying that there really aren’t strong stands at the positive end of things for captain, so playing whoever you feel like lets you build the best lineup from the Jets side is going to be fine in large field GPPs.
FLEX ownership distributions
- The highest positive leverage at FLEX goes to Josh Jacobs and Breece Hall
- The highest negative leverage at FLEX goes to Tyler Conklin and the Jets DST
Note that the leverage given by Josh Jacobs is massive here, with his exposure in winning lineups at around 75% and his projected ownership less than 45%. There’s a lot of room even if ownership projections are a bit conservative for him to give strong value at this slot.
Another note is that Jacobs and Breece Hall were the top two highest leverages in about 80% of the runs I did in the contest sims. They are the best plays by far at the slot, so building around them is going to make a lot of sense.
Both defenses are negative leverage pretty consistently here but, idk man, it’s Zach Wilson vs. Aiden O’Connell, so you’ve just gotta do what you’ve gotta do.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Some notes on the above (bad) lineups:
- Tyler Conklin and both kickers making plenty of appearances in the lineups that should be duped the most.
- The most used combos in the FLEX look like Jacobs/G.Wilson/Z.Wilson with either Aiden O’Connell or Breece Hall.
- Ownership is in a pretty regular spot in terms of the aggregate sum, so expect quite a few dupes here.
I’m surprised to see that Breece Hall is not one of the core FLEX combo pieces and it’s instead Zach Wilson but hey, the sims identified Hall as one of the most underutilized FLEX options so computers are maybe smarter than me. The Raiders defense makes an appearance as one of the highest projected dupes, so avoid that with your life. If you take down a GPP with a DST captain lineup that is duped more than 10 times I think Draftkings actually forces a self exclusion.
We don’t really see any of the Jets secondary WRs here and there’s no sight of Mayers, so the auxiliary pieces are going to be great for managing duplication counts today.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
There are better things to do than subject yourself to this game and showdown tonight. Spend time with your family. Go for a walk. Play some video games. Maybe call your mom I don’t know. But this game will suck.
If you do want to play it, I think you should probably just build around Breece Hall and Josh Jacobs and ignore both QBs. Neither one of these teams are explosive in their current forms and it’s hard to think that more than 3 TDs are scored in this one.
My lean here is a Breece Hall captain with a 3-3 build utilizing one or both kickers and Garrett Wilson as a priority spend.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Davante Adams (CPT)
- Jakobi Meyers
- Jets DST
Some players that look undervalued:
- Your mom, you should call her, it's an undervalued relationship
- Josh Jacobs
- Breece Hall (FLEX)
Good luck and bink a unique
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