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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Raiders vs. Steelers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

  • Najee Harris sucks but he also does not quite suck as bad as the field thinks, so he makes a worthwhile captain
  • The defenses and kickers look like they will lead to high dupe counts, so try to avoid using multiple of them in your GPP builds
  • This is one of the most wide open showdowns we have had, if you don’t feel comfortable with your lineup you are on the right track

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain ownership distributions

I will be very clear: I am unhappy about these results. Najee Harris sucks. I do not want to use him. But he does offer the most leverage at captain based on the difference in exposure and projected ownership at the position. It’s just all very disappointing. On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo offers the most negative leverage as a CPT on this slate. His projected ownership at the slot is almost 19% while his exposure there is just 11%.

FLEX ownership distributions

The highest leverage offered in the FLEX spot goes to Jakobi Meyers, followed by Josh Jacobs. Both project for modest ownership in this slot and have high exposure rates. Meyers specifically has some great expected fantasy point metrics and Josh Jacobs has one of the best roles of any RB in fantasy, so this isn’t really surprising. Meanwhile, Pat Friermuth and both defensives offer the most negative leverage. Once again, this is disappointing, as it means we should be playing for a relatively high scoring affair between these two wet towel teams.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

  • There are no free squares tonight, in fact this is one of the more wide open slates we have seen so far this year
  • There’s some interesting ways to build using both PIT running backs considering Kenny Pickett throws like an overweight 6th grader
  • Both kickers offer some slight leverage overall, making them more valuable than either DST

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The vast majority of lineups with a high dupe chance are going to be Davante Adams, one of the kickers, or the fucking DST. This may end up being the fishiest showdown slate of all time if a heavily duped lineup ends up winning.  The most dupe-prone combo is going to be a FLEX trio of Adams, Garoppolo, and Pickett with Josh Jacobs a premier piece as well. I think the biggest edge for this showdown is just to play a lineup that wins when these teams actually score points. Most people will be building with the kickers and DST and probably Josh Jacobs, so playing things that neutralize DST and Kickers gives the most leverage.

That said, Maybe the best way to beat the field is by using no RBs at all? Look to these teams to score points through the air and maximize your correlation to the points scored. Josh Jacobs with Jimmy G might be an exception here, but using either of Warren or Najee with Pickett is likely wasted EV.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is actually a really tough showdown once you get into the ways to beat the field. There are some gross ways, like Najee Harris captain, that let you pass the field with a more common win condition while getting direct leverage over more popular pieces. On the other hand, there are ways that feel less gross, like stacking the passing game, but go against what these teams are most likely to do. Both options are valid in terms of showdown, and there are no great answers in terms of maintaining upside while building apart from the field.

As of now, I see two main paths that I am likely to follow: Najee Harris captain with a Pickett fade, leaning towards a 4-2 PIT stack, or a 3-3 gamestack with a 4-2 LV lean since I think their offense is more condensed. Either way it’s hard to feel great about building either. Very fun!

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Defenses and Kickers
  • Jimmy G (Cpt)
  • Pat Freiermuth

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Passing stacks
  • Najee Harris (CPT)
  • Josh Jacobs

Good luck and bink a unique

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