NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Vikings vs. Eagles

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• The best captain on the slate is Kirk Cousins, and the best FLEX is Justin Jefferson, making for a clear path in roster construction
• The most overowned combination will be Hurts, Brown, and Jefferson, so playing just 2/3 of them helps lower uniques
• Playing for a PHI loss and MIN win gamescript is probably best in large field GPPs

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

Captain exposures for tonight are valued appropriately based on the projected ownership. The best leverage we gain on the field is on Kirk Cousins at captain, with his exposures in the contest winners at 21.10% and his projected ownership at captain 17.92%. On the other end of the spectrum is A.J. Brown, who projects for 9.85% ownership at the position with just 5.50% exposure. Your money will likely not be made with who you choose at captain tonight!

FLEX ownership distributions

When we look at FLEX exposures, we have a couple very strong options in terms of leverage and only a couple negative values. The best leverage on the slate goes to Justin Jefferson with an exposure of 70% in the winners and projected at just 37% ownership. This gives a lot of room if the projected ownership is low on him to still offer positive leverage. The other big value in terms of leverage gained is on Jalen Hurts. His FLEX exposures are 79% while his projected ownership there is just 59%.

Granted, Both of these players will be highly owned, but a lot of people will be looking to use them at captain. Using both in the FLEX offers an interesting angle to the slate.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• The free square today is going to be Jalen Hurts, you are just playing him and moving along
• Devonta Smith is the largest negative leverage at FLEX, followed by lots of PHI players, which speaks to them being the overvalued stack
• Both defenses are appropriately owned based on projection, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Eagles DST come in around 15-20% based on recency bias

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The highest owned lineups tonight are mostly cheap players at captain while jamming in all of the expensive options in the FLEX. Rashaad Penny, who is starting, will likely demand a lot of ownership across the board. Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and DeVona Smith are all exceptionally popular in the highest projected ownership lineups, so avoiding that combination will help lower dupes. One other big observation is the lack of Kirk Cousins, who looks like one of the best differentiation points on the slate.

One thing we don’t see any of is Alexander Mattison captain, which could be fruitful considering his CPT leverage is neutral and his expected fantasy points last week were respectable regardless of lackluster results.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

The assumption in this game is going to be that the Eagles DST gets to Cousins early and often thus lowering his potential. Likewise, people think that primetime Kirk Cousins sucks, so they will naturally be lower on him than he deserves. A full out MIN 5-1 combo seems like it would make a lot of sense here, considering PHI players grade out as overvalued and Cousins looks like the most undervalued captain.

If you do choose to go with a PHI 4-2 or 5-1, look to be different with Quez Watkins or using multiple running backs. That side will be more popular than the MIN side, so you have to think a little harder about how to lower dupes.

Some players that look overvalued:

• A.J. Brown
• Eagles DST (Assuming higher ownership than projected)
• Rashaad Penny

Some players that look undervalued:

• Kirk Cousins (both CPT and FLEX)
• Justin Jefferson (FLEX)
• Alexander Mattison (CPT)

Good luck and bink a unique!

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