Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.
- Christian McCaffrey is projected at wildly high ownership and is deserving of every last bit of it.
- Highly predicted duplications are heavily focused on Ray-Ray McCloud, so fading him seems like a good, easy way to get different.
- Depending on the game situation, you’ll want to prioritize either Jordan Mason or CMC at captain.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain and FLEX ownership distributions
Christian McCaffrey is projected to be the highest owned player on the slate by far at both captain and FLEX. He is also appropriately valued and should be the #1 priority on the slate. It’s not about fading him, it’s about how you get different with him in your lineups.
The most undervalued captain tonight is DK Metcalf. His captain exposures sit at 18.56% while his projected ownership there is just 8.27%. He’s also very undervalued at FLEX, with 64% exposure vs. just 37% expected ownership. On the other hand, the most overvalued player tonight is Tyler Lockett! With exposures of less than 1% at captain and just 12% in the FLEX, he makes sense as the easiest fade overall.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
There’s a healthy mix at captain tonight, but the highest exposed in the above lineups is Chrsitian McCaffrey. After him, we have some Walker, Geno, and Gould taking up equity along with a bit of Metcalf. Some notable players missing from the captains above are both defenses as well as Tyler Lockett. Overall, there’s enough value to do whatever you need to do at captain tonight. It’s worth saying that because of this, McCaffrey can be played in the FLEX to get different.
Speaking of the FLEX, we see more McCaffrey here but he’s not the highest exposure. Ray-Ray McCloud is actually the most used player in the highest predicted duplications. With no Deebo Samuel, it’s assumed that McCloud takes that role. However, in the preseason we saw plenty of Danny Gray and he’s getting basically no steam. It makes sense to go with Gray in otherwise highly duplicated lineups for some easy differentiation.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
Whenever we have a player projected at well over 90% total ownership it’s a tempting fade. However, that fade hardly ever works out outside of injury because the medians are so heavily in their favor. McCaffrey has had his injury issues in the past, but the 49ers are happy to limit his workload to prevent it. The only thing to do in this instance is relegate CMC to the FLEX and hope he doesn’t end up scoring the touchdowns. With that being said, mixing in some Jordan Mason is a great idea in large field GPPs, especially if you think the Seahawks get rolled here. Mason will be the lead back if SF gets a strong lead.
All of that being said, if you think SF wins this game handedly, Jordan Mason is the best play on the board. If you think SEA wins this game or keeps it close, CMC should be your captain. In both instances, mixing in some Danny Gray and DK MEtcalf seem to be strong ideas in the optimizations to give both upside and differentiation.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Tyler Lockett
- George Kittle
- Ray-Ray McCloud
Some players that look undervalued:
- DK Metcalf
- Danny Gray
- Seahawks DST
Good luck and bink a unique!
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