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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Bears vs. Commanders

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Bears vs. Commanders

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • The field may be ignoring the drop in usage for Antonio Gibson which will be important to leverage on this slate.
  • Paying down at captain seems to be popular, so paying up looks like a less duplicated way to attack your roster constructions.
  • It's a presumed kicker and showdown slate tonight, so putting together lineups that play for a higher scoring game is something you should consider.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

The first thing to jump out of this table is that Antonio Gibson looks to be pretty notably overvalued. His projected ownership at captain is around 4%, but he only shows up in optimizations .22% of the time. Likewise, as a FLEX play he is projected at 26.17% ownership but only has an optimization exposure of 6.28%. This one is pretty interesting based on the usage from last week, but if the field wants to make this mistake we are happy to allow it.

In terms of undervalued options, the main one is going to be Carson Wentz at captain. His projected ownership there is 18.35% but his optimization exposure is around 33%. He’s much more appropriately valued at the FLEX position but is still around 10% too low. Granted, Wentz can always go completely sideways, but his ceiling is higher than people would like to admit.

Some other notes on the exposures and projected ownerships:

  • Both John Bates and Cole Turner (WAS tight ends) look to be undervalued here with both well under 10% owned based on projection.
  • The Commanders defense appears to be more popular than the Bears defense, which is a clear mistake based on what we know about defense in relation to fantasy.
  • Brian Robinson Jr.’s ownership is far too high based on what we saw last week with medians likely overestimating his efficiency.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

The most frequent captains in the lineups that should be the most duplicated contain some pretty hilarious plays. You’ll find a lot of both defenses and both kickers along with Curtis Samuel and Darnell Mooney. In fact, the kickers and defenses make up 45% of the highest predicted dupes. Simply paying up at captain on this slate is going to be a good way to start out with quality differentiation.

When we move onto the FLEX, it’s all about Carson Wentz. He shows up in 95% of these lineups as a FLEX (and the only other lineup he is the captain!) so avoiding him is a way to being unique. The other major players in these lineups are Justin Fields, Curtis Samuel, and the Commanders defense. Once again, the lean of the field on the Commanders DST over the Bears is an odd decision, and the Bears by all measures make for a better play.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Showdowns that feature a heavy emphasis on defenses and kickers are always fun. The field is basically hoping that the game is boring so they can split the top prize 420 ways for their share of $69 dollars. However, the best way to play is for a higher scoring game. That way you get to watch an exciting game while pushing for a unique bink worth $420,690 dollars instead. The moral of this story is that it’s important to zig when the field zags, especially if it leads to a more profitable position and is more exciting overall.

Based on the optimizations, the main way to attack this slate is with both QBs while avoiding the Commanders DST and Antonio Gibson. Moreover, utilizing J.D. McKissic is a great way to build a more unique lineup while also leveraging the field’s expectations of a backfield.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Antonio Gibson
  • Commanders DST
  • Brian Robinson Jr.

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Carson Wentz (Captain)
  • Commanders TEs
  • Cam Sims

Good luck and bink a unique!

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