Posted on Leave a comment

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Bengals vs. Dolphins

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Bengals vs. Dolphins

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

The first big observation here is both Tua and Waddle being heavily underappreciated as captains. This mostly stems from the belief that the Dolphins offense will be flat overall. Likewise, people still aren't bought into Jaylen Waddle as the WR1a in this offense. At 201% and 33% captain exposure in the optimizations, you'll want to pay attention to both of these players to get some edge over the field.

The second main observation here is Tee Higgins being significantly overvalued by the field in all respects. He shows up as a captain in 0% of optimizations. On the other hand, he only shows up in 9% of optimizations as a FLEX. Especially considering that the Bengals have not been super pass happy, there is good value in fading one of the two main WRs. Higgins looks like the best bet to let people down.

A couple other notes:

  • Mike Thomas and Trent Sherfield are both undervalued as punts.
  • Chase Edmonds looks fine as a FLEX, but overvalued at captain.

Duplication projections and lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

Similar to recent showdowns, the ownership exposures are pretty spread out in the highest dupes in terms of captains. All of Tua, Mostert, and both kickers are 20%. The name of the game for most appears to be paying down at captain to afford the expensive stacking options. Overall, this is going to lead to overexposure to captains and cheap fringe options and underexposure to expensive options and defenses.

Here are some other notes on the highest dupes:

  • Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase don't show up in the highest dupes, so there is value there.
  • Joe Burrow is the highest overall exposure at FLEX, but surprisingly the second highest is Jason Sanders.
  • Neither defense is used at all, which makes sense based on the other high dupes and roster constructions.
  • Tyler Boyd and Mike Gesicki are low owned pieces that make sense in large field GPPs as well.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Showdown slates with significantly expensive options and condensed offenses can seem difficult and daunting. It's very hard to fit all the main pieces tonight and therefore you have to make uncomfortable decisions. You can see from the general roster construction that the field will mostly be playing cheaper captains and focusing on the Bengals as spend ups. A very easy way to be different is a focus on the Dolphins spend ups and stacks. Likewise, using expensive captains is a way to maintain upside while getting different.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Tee Higgins
  • Chase Edmonds (CPT)
  • Hayden Hurst

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Jaylen Waddle
  • Durham Smythe
  • Mike Thomas (FLEX)

Good luck tonight!

Leave a Reply