NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Bills vs. Patriots

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• Somehow Josh Allen is both the highest projected ownership and captain and yet not high enough, so it’s important to leverage that.
• Captain ownership is spread out in the highest projected duplications, but there are clear options to utilize that give you a real ceiling to build around.
• The name of the game with these teams is getting weird, so if you build a lineup that doesn’t make you feel a little gross you should start over.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

EDIT AT 7:48PM EST — JJ Taylor is inactive, so replace him with Pierre Strong in all portions of this article. they are the exact same play.

The most overvalued player on the slate tonight based on optimization exposures is Jakobi Meyers. His exposures at captain are just .42% and at FLEX they only hit 13.25%. Compare those numbers to the 6.15% and 31.38% projected ownerships and there’s a pretty glaring difference to leverage. Meyers is a solid floor play, and gets consistent volume, but his ceiling is limited. Even with Mac Jones passing well lately, he hasn’t benefited a significant amount.

The most undervalued captain today is none other than Josh Allen. Even though his captain ownership projected at 29%, it’s still a chunk below the optimization exposures of 35.44%. There’s a large portion of the captain ownership going to Rhamondre Stevenson here and while he’s a strong play, no one has the ceiling of Allen on any given slate. Especially considering there’s a wealth of values available tonight, there’s no reason to be under the field on Allen CPT.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

We have a bevy of captains used in the top most duplicated projections for tonight. Jonnu Smith, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Devin Singletary are some of the names taking up the most spots here. However, both QBs and both kickers find their way into captain spots as well. Overall this doesn’t define a clear route towards differentiation or fades of individual players. Likely, it tells us that loading up on Josh Allen captain is just the right move.

With FLEX it’s obviously a different story, as Josh Allen and Rhamondre Stevenson are in every lineup they aren’t already slotted at captain. Mac Jones is popular as well as Stefon Diggs, J.J. Taylor, and Devin Singletary making high appearances to bring up the other popular options. Taylor is a really interesting piece here, as he will likely be popular but not so much in lineups with Rhamondre. 

Some options with upside that show up little or not at all in the above lineups: Bill DST, Isaiah Mckenzie, James Cook, and Hunter Henry.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This slate will almost for sure have a unique winning lineup. That’s a good thing, because a unique bink is so much shinier of a trophy than a duped one. It also sucks, because it means some wild shit is going to win it for someone. The lesson here is if you build a lineup that you think someone else has, scrap it and start with something more bold. There are hardly any wrong answers on a slate with two spread out offenses and you’ll have much more upside off the beaten (roster construction) path.

The one thing to start with is Josh Allen captain. Mix in some Tyquan Thornton, J.J. Taylor, and Nelson Agholor and you’ll find yourself with a weird lineup you can be proud of.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Jakobi Meyers
• Isaiah McKenzie

Some players that look undervalued:

• Josh Allen (captain)
• Khalil Shakir
• Tyquan Thornton

Good luck and bink a unique!

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