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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Broncos vs. 49ers

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Broncos vs. 49ers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

This is a pretty interesting spread of exposures between the optimizations. Basically, there are five players that are all viable at captain and then everyone else. Comparitively to projected captain ownership, it's a lot more condensed.

It seems the most undervalued captain tonight is Jeff Wilson Jr., who is the captain 17.50% of the time in optimizations but only 5.54% projected by the industry. He has a solid marketshare of the rushing work and good touchdown equity on a very rush heavy team. Likewise, his flex ownership is far too low as well.

On the other hand, Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't show up at captain at all in optimizations but is projected around 9% by the industry. this makes him drastically overvalued. To clarify, for the same reasons why Jeff Wilson Jr. is valuable, Jimmy G lacks upside. This is a run first team and Jimmy is there to distribute, not score.

A couple notes:

  • Both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are undervalued as both captain and flex options.
  • Javonte Williams is far overvalued in all regards.
  • Kyle Jukjansdlvajsdvn makes for a really interesting option in large field GPPs.

Duplication projections and lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. to clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $10 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $10 contest on Draftkings

Kickers! Around a third of the top projected dupes are kicker captains, which allow you to fit all the other high owned pieces. As far as position players go, it is mostly Russell Wilson, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Albert Ok;iauherjkvn at captain. In terms of FLEX ownership, Things are almost completely spread between the viable options.

Here are some notes on the highest dupes:

  • Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Deebo Samuel don’t show up as captains, showing they could be underutilized there.
  • There could be extra value in fading the kickers overall.
  • Russell Wilson could be underutilized as a captain and overvalued in the flex.
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DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

There should be a lot of edge in this showdown based on people ignoring macro trends. Most people make assumptions about QBs having upside, but teams like the 49ers will always lean into the RBs. Because of this, you get direct leverage by fading the QB and taking appropriate shots on the backs instead. Paired with High upside WRs from the other team and you get to some really easy to follow builds. Going with combos around Jeff Wilson Jr., Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy, and Russell Wilson looks best.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Jimmy G
  • Javonte Williams
  • Brandon Aiyuk

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Jeff Wilson Jr.
  • Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy
  • Kyle Jusauhguanrvnrvkjl

Good luck tonight!

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