NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Broncos vs. Chargers
Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.
UPDATE 7:18pm EST: With Albert Oiualjsdflianejrf inactive, Greg Dulcich should be considered the starter. He is priced at the minimum on Draftkings and is going to represent an outrageous source of value. You should consider him a locked in value in cash games and be careful of his ownership in GPPs. If you fade him in larger fields it gives you more breathing room in terms of duping and win equity. Likewise, expect to see even higher percentages of the field with expensive captains as the value has opened up even more than before.
- Austin Ekeler looks to be significantly overowned while Mike Williams (as a captain) is underowned.
- The main roster construction will be expensive captains with Greg Dulcich, so make sure to avoid that in large field.
- Focus on a shootout oriented build that avoids the bad value and print some cash.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain and FLEX ownership distributions
Mike Williams captain exposures in the optimizations is straight up outrageous. A 64% captain rate on a player is something we haven’t seen before, but that’s what happens with one true alpha on a slate. Likewise, his price isn’t near high enough to match his workload. Overall, he makes for the biggest priority by a wide margin at captain. Hilariously enough he is appropriately valued as a FLEX option.
Looking at the rest of the board, it is Mike Williams’ teammate austin Ekeler that looks to be the most overvalued. His captain exposures are just .11% while he’s projected at an ownership of 12.80% there. For his FLEX exposures he sits at 9.40% and his projected ownership is a lofty 45%. It seems the field is chasing touchdown upside here after a string of strong games, but the workload is much less valuable than that of Williams.
Some other notes:
- Kendall Hinton is projected at basically no ownership but shows up a nominal amount as a FLEX play in the optimizations.
- Greg Dulcich will be a very popular option at min price based on hype but should be avoided considered the circumstances and low optimizations rates.
- Courtland Sutton continues to be underrated during the Broncos showdown appearances.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
By far the highest exposures at captain in the highest projected dupes comes from Mike Williams and Russell Wilson. With the abundance of value on these teams there’s no reason for people to pay down at the position. Moreover, the projections are rather toploaded based on price, so expensive captains will be the focus. Outside of those two, we see some Herbert and Sutton as well as a couple punts.
Looking at the FLEX it is all about Greg Dulcich. Considering his min price salary and the hype on his name, he looks like the value people will jam in. It wouldn’t be crazy to think he ends up 30% owned as a FLEX play which could be an egregious mistake by the field. Overall, this is a situation where simply pivoting off of him to one of Hinton or Murray could pay off big in differentiation.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
While russell Wilson may be a fuckin weirdo, he also isn’t as bad as he has been. There’s plenty of reason to think the shoulder injury hampered recent performances. Making a bet that he is back closer to 100% and able to distribute more effectively is a good move especially on showdown. With the field forcing in punts, it may also be a good idea to avoid them and build a more balanced roster construction. This game looks like a shootout, so focusing on the WR1s is vital.
In sum, build lineups that focus on Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton, and Russell Wilson. Make sure to avoid Greg Dulcich unless you are already very different elsewhere.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Greg Dulcich
- Austin Ekeler
- Gerald Everett
Some players that look undervalued:
- Kendal Hinton
- Mike Williams (Captain)
- Cortland Sutton
Good luck and bink a unique!