NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Broncos vs. Seahawks
Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.
Captain and FLEX ownership distributions
Russell Wilson is far and away the top overall choice at captain based on the Paydirt optimizations. His projection is considerably higher and the price isn't necessarily prohibitive. That 22.24% is higher than his projected captain ownership of 19.09%, representing value. On the other hand, Geno Smith shows up as a captain just 6.62% of the time, while his projected captain ownership is 11.46%.
Another very interesting result based on projected ownership is Javonte Williams. He shows up as a captain in the optimizations just 5.22% of the time, but is projected at 15.97% captain ownership. Overall he looks to be significantly overvalued by the industry.
Duplication projections and lineups to avoid
Overall in the optimizations, there are plenty of lineups that appear to be heavily duped when considering the big $15 contest on Draftkings. Of the top 20 lineups in projection, only three project for less than 20 dupes. This is a consequence of tight pricing as well as generally understood depth charts.
that said, here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. to clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
A common theme in highly duplicated (100+) lineups: No Will Dissly. The common thought in the industry is that Noah Fant has far supplanted Dissly as the main TE on the team. While this may be true, it's not a certainty and shouldn't be treated as such. Likewise, the top duplicated lineups lean towards a WR in the captain. 41% of lineups with 100+ predicted dupes have a WR in the captain while just 25% use either of the QBs.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This looks like a strong showdown slate with a lot of ownership going to unknown situations. Specifically, the ownership going to Javonte Williams and Noah Fant is based on assumptions that haven't been proved out. Likewise, the reduced ownership on Geno Smith and the assumption of the Broncos dominating this game both provide edge.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Javonte Williams
- Noah Fant
- Jerry Jeudy
Some players that look undervalued:
- Russell Wilson (CPT)
- Will Dissly
- Dee Eskridge
Good luck tonight!