NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Browns vs. Steelers
Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.
Captain and FLEX ownership distributions
It seems we are running into another situation where a premium RB is being overvalued. On Monday it was Derrick Henry and today it is Najee Harris. His projected captain ownership of 12.80% is far above the optimizations estimate at just .1%. The other large differences are the defenses being considerably overvalued, but that's not a surprise here.
A couple notes:
- It's all about Mitchell Trubisky in the captain spot, as he is way undervalued there.
- Utilizing Demetric Felton as a FLEX looks undervalued as well.
- Amari Cooper and Kareem Hunt both look quite overvalued overall.
Duplication projections and lineups to avoid
Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. to clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
You know it's going to be an awesome showdown slate when a defense captain is projected to be the highest duplicated lineup. The ownership on the highest dupes is generally spread out. To clarify, Trubisky is the highest owned captain at 35% with six other players used in the optimizations. However, with a kicker and a defense because some of the highest owned lineups, there are clear paths to leverage on this showdown.
Here are some notes on the highest dupes:
- Donovan Peoples-Jones isn't used at all in the highest projected dupes.
- Diontae Johnson is the highest used player overall, followed by both QBs.
- the Browns defense is used quite a bit, but the Steelers defense is not.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
These showdowns where the over/under is low and people hate the offenses make for such easy game theory spots. If you make a priority of the position players and avoid the defenses you already have a strong leg up on the field. Finally, if you look at WRs and TEs over the RBs you'll have everything you need to build +EV lineups tonight.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Najee Harris
- Amari Cooper
- Browns DST
Some players that look undervalued:
- Mitchell Trubisky (CPT)
- Pat Freiermuth
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
Good luck tonight!