NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Chargers vs. Chiefs

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• Patrick Mahomes is, as usual, the best possible captain option on this slate, although it’s worth saying that Kelce is equally as undervalued.
• The highest duplicated lineups appear to have Marques Valdes-Scantling at captain with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in the FLEX, so try to avoid that combo.
• There might be too much confidence on a couple players from the Chiefs, so there’s a lot of value in building with the secondary and tertiary pieces to be different.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The best captain option by a mile is Patrick Mahomes, as is usually the case when it comes to Chiefs showdown slates. His captain optimizations are at 39% while the field is looking to have him at just 22%. His FLEX ownerships are about in line with one another, mostly signaling that the field thinks he is too expensive as a captain. However, with such high medians and the highest ceiling on the slate, his price is mostly a nonfactor.

The most overvalued captain looks to be Isaih Pacheco and by a big margin as well. His projected captain ownership is 4.28% while the optimizations don’t have him as a captain at all. With the FLEX differences we see more of the same. His projected ownership there is 26% while the optimizations have him under 2%. This difference is likely caused by overconfidence from the field in last week's workload. The Chiefs prefer to use multiple running backs and have said as much, so we shouldn’t expect another 75% week for Pacheco.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The highest exposure at captain in the lineups above is Marques Valdes-Scantling, who takes up around 35% of the slots. Outside of him, it’s pretty spread out and not anything we should pay much attention to. When we have slates with so many viable captains, we can expect the ownership at captain to matter less in this regard.

With the FLEX, however, we have some clear trends. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Austin Ekeler are used in nearly all of the top predicted duplications. This makes sense, of course, considering the wealth of value plays on this slate. Other highly used options in these lineups include both kickers and Jerick McKinnon.

It’s worth noting the lack of either defense in the highest predicted dupes, which is to be expected in a presumed shootout. Other options with low ownership here are Tre McKitty (Gerald Everett is inactive), Joshua Palmer, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Chiefs showdown slates are always a blast, because even if your lineups suck the games are usually entertaining. Likewise, the Chargers are usually entertaining because we get to see what dumbshit mistakes that the coaching staff makes to lose the game. From a DFS standpoint, however, both of these teams can and will spread the love in the passing game. This is a blessing and a curse, because it makes for easier uniques while being harder to get right with certainty. Especially today with multiple injury situations to monitor, you should be more willing to accept volatility in your builds.

There are a couple good routes to take tonight. The first is build with the Chargers winning in a low scoring game. This fades Patrick Mahoems and focuses more on Travis Kelce, while building with Ekeler in the captain spot and a 4-2 Chargers. Another clear way to be different is by taking shots on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The coaching staff has said they want to get him more touches, so you can bank on that as an angle and build optimally around him at low ownership.

Either way, the best fade tonight is Isaih Pacheco. Avoid him and you are on your way.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Isaiah Pacheco
• Joshua Palmer
• Keenan Allen

Some players that look undervalued:

• Patrick Mahoems (Captain)
• Both Defenses
• Tre’ McKitty

Good luck and bink a unique!

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