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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Chargers vs. Dolphins

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The glaring difference in optimizations vs projected ownership is Tua being by far the best choice at captain. His optimization exposures are 42%, a super high mark, while his projected ownership there is only slightly higher than Herbert and Tyreek. His projection trumps the others by a significant margin, so he makes for a priority in the slot.

The most overvalued option is looking like Justin Herbert. While tua makes for a terrific captain, Herbert lacks the passing TD upside based on the Chargers usual trends. Because of this, his optimization exposures are just 2.30% at captain and 30.65% in the FLEX. 

Granted, these results are based on the numbers and not necessarily the upside. I think it’s worth saying that based on historical baselines, both Herbert and tua possess nearly the same upside, and utilizing either at captain is a strong move on this slate.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

While Tua appears in 40% of the highest duplication predictions here, it comes with some context. First off, he is by far the highest used option in the optimizations, so there’s more marbles in the bag here. Likewise, because of the amount of usable value on this slate, the expensive players like Tua are more accessible at captain. After him, we see Waddle as the next most used captain along with both Dolphins RBs. Interestingly there is no Tyreek in this set, which makes him a high upside captain in terms of differentiation.

One last note here is the duplication counts are strikingly low, which is to be expected with two good teams and softer pricing. There are a million ways to go with your lineups on this slate, so people will be getting different without trying. You can do the same and mostly not worry about duplications outside of the instance of entering a cash lineup or something.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This should be a fantastic game with upside all across the field. While the optimizations lean towards the Dolphins side, there might be more edge in stacking up the Chargers. Because of the lower ownership on guys like Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, you can make some easily unique builds while pulling in main Dolphins players. Something like a 4-2 with Mike Williams captain and Jaylen Waddle in the FLEX is a great way to capture a lot of upside in a more unique way.

Based on optimizations, Tua is the captain with a Austin Ekeler fade. Utilizing the Chargers DST as a value piece along with Jaylen Waddle look like the best ways to gain relative value. Overall, build what you want for this one and enjoy what should be an awesome ride.

Good luck and bink a unique!

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