NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.
- Both QBs look to be important pieces of most build paths based on optimizations.
- The field is giving a lot of attention to one of the lower ceiling WRs on this slate, giving plenty of edge to those who choose to fade them.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling appears to be a high upside leverage piece based on muted ownership and good usage.
Captain and FLEX ownership distributions
As opposed to the recent showdowns, the premium running back is actually undervalued rather than overvalued. Leonard Fournette is a strong captain at 13.20% exposures in the optimizations with a projected captain ownership of just 10.39%. Likewise, he is a 58% exposure as a FLEX in optimizations vs. just 41% projected ownership. Utilizing him in any regard gives you a slight edge on the field in this one.
The main player being overvalued as of now is actually Mike Evans. To clarify, his captain ownership is projected at 10.67% while his exposure in optimizations is just 2%. With all the Bucs receivers healthy, Evans will likely have a reduced marketshare and be more touchdown dependent. Look to avoid him in most builds and leverage the field on his failure.
A couple other notes:
- Why exactly is Russell Gage projected at nearly 49% FLEX usage?
- Matthew Wright filling in for Harrison Butkler should get some ownership but likely not enough.
- Rachaad White looks significantly undervalued based on his price and nominal usage.
Duplication projections and lineups to avoid
Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
As is a trend with showdowns involving high priced priorities, we see some kicker captains in the highest predicted dupes. That being said, the dupe counts are relatively low (under 50 isn’t terrible) so most of these are still viable in most contests. Ryan Succop makes up quite a few of the captain spots, with secondary Chiefs receivers making up a lot of the remaining slots. Overall the game here is to save salary at captain to afford the best FLEX combos.
Here are some other notes on the highest dupes:
- None of Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, or Leonard Fournette show up at captain in the highest predicted dupes.
- Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are used in nearly every high dupe in the FLEX.
- As expected for a Chiefs game, the defenses are underutilized in general and a way to be different.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
It’s always a lot of fun to play through a Chiefs showdown. Likewise, even though Tom Brady might be slowing down, this is a game that he likely stands up for. If you take both of those things are certainties, Brady and Mahomes are the main priorities, while the position players should be spread out. If you think that Brady is unable to keep up here, Leonard Fournette should be your captain of choice to be different and play for a low scoring game. The beauty of games like these is the vast array of roster construction paths that work.
Overall based on the optimizations the best path is forcing in Mahomes, Brady, and Kelce and utilizing Marquez Valdes-Scantling as a leverage piece.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Russell Gage
- Mike Evans
- Jerick McKinnon
Some players that look undervalued:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Noah Gray
- Marquez Valdes Scantling
Good luck and bink a unique!