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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Chiefs vs. Chargers

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Chiefs vs. Chargers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt optimizations along with their projected ownership

If you read this article for the MNF game, you'll notice the captain distribution is quite a bit flatter this time around. Patrick Mahomes is the top overall option at 19.70%, but Justin Herbert is relatively close at 11.56%. Likewise, every position player ends up being a captain option at some point in the optimizations, which is interesting. Mahomes optimization captain percentage of 19.70% is slightly higher than his projected mark of 16.19% meaning he is undervalued. On the other hand, Herbert has his projected captain ownership at around 2% higher, meaning he is overvalued.

There are multiple notable difference in captain optimizations and projected ownership. For instance, Joshua Palmer projects at the third highest captain ownership of 12.45%. However, his optimization rate is just 4.88%. Likewise there are multiple undervalued players as well. Tre' McKitty (7.88% optimization, 1.77% projected) and Isaiah Spiller (5.48% optimization, 1% ownership) towards the top of the list in regards to that.

Duplication projections and lineups to avoid

Overall in the optimizations, there are very few heavily duped lineups towards the top. The highest number is the 20th overall lineup with 39 projected dupes in the large field contest. With that being said, those that use the Paydirt projections won't have to worry much about ownership on optimals.

Meanwhile, here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. to clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

Here are some notes on the highest dupes:

  • There are no Travis Kelce captain lineups, which might represent an edge.
  • The highest owned captains here are Patrick Mahomes, Gerald Everett, and Juju Smith-Schuster.
  • Joshua Palmer, Justin Herbert, and Gerald Everett are present in 60%+ of these lineups, so fading any of them will help reduce duplications.
  • Tre' McKitty and Skyy Moore don't show up in any as FLEX plays, so using them will help you gain leverage.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

The big questions with this showdown are regarding the Chargers receiving options with no Keenan Allen. While Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter look like the best options, there is a lot of uncertainty in reality. Likewise, guys like Tre' McKitty and Isaiah Spiller are afterthoughts. On the other hand, the Chiefs' exposures are heavily centered on the main options with some edge to be had on the backups.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Joshua Palmer
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Tre' McKitty
  • Patrick Mahomes (CPT)
  • Travis Kelce (CPT)

Good luck tonight!

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