NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Cowboys vs. Eagles
Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.
- AJ Brown looks to be significantly overvalued, while Michael Gallup looks to be a great spot to plant a flag.
- Kickers look like w popular option at captain, so fading them is a good way to gain upside and get different.
- When leverage is this easy to find, you slam in Michael Gallup and Devonta Smith and call it a day.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain and FLEX ownership distributions
UPDATE 7:24pm EST: Dalton Schultz is inactive, so he will be replaced with Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot. Neither of them is a valuable piece of this offense in his stead, but they are cheap. According to optimizations they are a bit undervalued as FLEX options. Likewise, because of the added value, Jalen Hurts because an even more valuable option at captain.
While it is fair to say that Hurts is a bit overvalued, it’s also important to say he is the most valuable captain tonight. The optimizations have him at around 18.5% captain while he’s projected at a gross 37% rate. However, that 17.5% is still the highest of all players. The same can be said for his FLEX ownership, where he is projected at 78% and the optimizations have him work around 66%.
When we look at undervalued options Michael Gallup is the obvious place to start. His captain optimizations are the second highest on the slate at nearly 17% while his projected ownership there is just 3%. We also have his FLEX optimization rate at 56% while the field looks to have him in just 22% of lineups. He’s one of the inefficiencies that we love to see in showdown.
Some other notes on the exposures and projected ownerships:
- CeeDee Lamb and Devonta Smith both look undervalued as a whole at both captain and FLEX positions.
- A.J. Brown looks considerably overvalued based on optimizations.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
The most frequent captains tonight are the kickers. Both BRett Maher and Jake Elliott have prominence at captain here to fit the expensive guns from both sides. Likewise, this leads to an easy path to more diversified lineups by focusing on expensive captains without the kickers. The other main captains in the lineups here are Michael Gallup and Miles Sanders. Of note is the lack of Ezekiel Elliot as a captain, which makes him an interesting diversification option.
Looking at the FLEX we have nearly 100% Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith. Both players are in 85%+ of the lineups shown above and will be extremely popular when played together. Overall, one way to be different is avoiding one or the other when building. Finally, it’s worth noting the lack of Cooper Rush even as a FLEX option. When QBs are available as a way to get different it’s typically a good idea to give them a look.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This should be a good showdown for contrarians. The general consensus is another kicker and defense slate, and that might be right. However, people are going with those options and paying up at the wrong spots. The leverage garnered by fading AJ Brown and forcing in Michael Gallup should be enough to push you past the field.
In sum, lineups that focus on Jalen Hurts, Micheal Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb look to be in the best position in large field GPPs.
Some players that look overvalued:
- AJ Brown
- Tony Pollard
Some players that look undervalued:
- Michael Gallup
- CeeDee Lamb (Captain)
- Devonta Smith
Good luck and bink a unique!