NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Dolphins vs. Steelers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• Tyreek Hill should get plenty of ownership, but he deserves more of it at captain.
• Building for a competitive game rather than a MIA stomp is a high upside way to build for large GPPs
• Using a punt tonight has less upside than most nights, so a balanced build might be best.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The most undervalued captain based on optimizations is going to be Tyreek Hill. His optimization exposures are around 35% but he is only projected as a 17% owned captain. His FLEX ownership, on the other hand, looks about right in terms of his real value. Interestingly the field values Tua more than Tyreek at captain.

On the other side of the coin we have Jaylen Waddle who looks to be the most overvalued player on the slate. His captain exposures are just 1% while he is projected at around 11% ownership. Likewise, his FLEX ownership sits at around 41% while the optimizations only value him at 18%. Considering how much more valuable the optimizations find Tyreek, it should be an easy choice.

Some other notes:

• Najee Harris appears a bit overvalued at both captain and FLEX and looks to be an easy fade overall.
• Pat Freiermuth seems to be undervalued here but that is mostly based on FLEX projected ownership being too low.
• Cedrick Wilson looks to be a relatively strong option to punt with.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The captain exposures are mostly spread out, but there is an ample amount of Jason Sanders captains here. Outside of him, it’s mostly the cheaper upside options that are used. In fact, there are no Tyreek Hill captains in the highest projected duplications. This should be a clear signal that finding ways to get expensive captains in your lineup is important tonight.

It makes sense, of course, that if there are plenty of cheap captains it’ll lead to all the expensive options in the FLEX. That is exactly what we see here tonight. Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa show up in 80%+ of the highly projected dupes, with Kenny Pickett not far behind. Likewise, options like Diontae Johnson and both kickers are frequent FLEX options.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This should be an interesting showdown since there’s a public perception angle to exploit. The general consensus is that MIA is considerably better than PIT and should streamroll them. You can leverage that by playing a 4-2 of PIT/MIA or simply playing towards a competitive gamescript. Making sure to have exposure to the PIT passing game is vital, as it helps to punish those that take a chance on Najee Harris. Likewise, if the game is to be competitive, PIT passing will benefit the most.

Look to build in a way that gets you away from the cheaper captains if possible, and onto Tyreek. Making a priority of Pat Freiermuth is smart as well.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Najee Harris
• Jaylen Waddle
• Jason Sanders

Some players that look undervalued:

• Tyreek Hill (Captain)
• Pat Freiermuth
• Raheem Mostert

Good luck and bink a unique!