NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Eagles vs. Packers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• While the majority of the field will be focusing on Jalen Hurts at captain, both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are better options at the slot.
• The ownership in the highest predicted duplications is pretty spread out, but the secondary pass catchers for both teams are good differentiation points.
• While this game could be good on paper, there’s upside to playing for a low scoring brawl.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

In terms of captain exposures, there’s a clear difference between the optimizations and projected ownership. When we are looking at the Eagles, it seems that the field wants to play Jalen Hurts and the optimizations are on his pass catchers. Both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith have higher exposures in the optimizations as captain than Hurts. Brown sits at nearly 27% and Smith just above 19% with Hurts just below 14%. The projected ownership of these three is 10%, 5%, and 24%, respectively. This is a clear difference and gives a good way to start your builds.

The most overvalued player looks to be Christian Watson (again). The last Packers slate saw similar results from the optimizations, and while Christian Watson caught another touchdown, he was far from incredible. The optimizations see him 0% of the time as a captain while the field is projecting him around 5%. Likewise he is undervalued at FLEX with 8% exposure in optimizations and 29% projected ownership.

The most undervalued player is, apparently, the Packers defense! With 6% exposure in the optimizations and 52% in the FLEX, it dwarfs the projected ownership numbers of 1.67% and 16%. This likely comes from a recent push in passing attempts from the Eagles tied with lesser efficiency and no Goedert. Considering the field will be playing for a shootout here, they make for a very intriguing option.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The ownership at captain here is pretty spread out, with a good mix of kickers and receivers. All these options are popular simply to allow for Jalen Hurts in the FLEX, which makes sense on an Eagles slate. One note on here is that we don’t have a lot of AJ Brown captains in these lineups which could represent a leak by the field. Considering his optimization exposures in the section above, he makes for a terrific option at captain.

As far as FLEX, it’s all Jalen Hurts. Nearly every one of the lineups above has him in the FLEX, which is a consequence of his price and popularity. Likewise, we see plenty of Brown, Rodgers, and Lazard. Those four will make up the vast majority of popular lineups on this slate. One way to be different is to build lineups and avoid that combination. If you choose to use all of those four, you’ll have to make sure you have two really low owned pieces around them to ensure you have enough relative value.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

It’s pretty interesting that the Packers defense is popping in the optimizations so much. What that means is the simulations are ending up with plenty of sacks and lots of inefficient passing attempts from the Eagles. The field will surely be ignoring the PAckers DST and they represent an easy way to be different overall. Even if you don’t use them, playing towards a slower, drawn out game with less emphasis on the QBs could serve you well.

Overall, the optimizations are looking to focus on AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith and less on Jalen Hurts. That will make you different enough, so if you take that route build optimally around them. If you do choose to play Hurts, bringing it back with the Packers DST in the flex is an interesting and unique way to build. Either way, play for a lower scoring game.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Jalen Hurts (captain)
• Christian Watson
• Robert Tonyan

Some players that look undervalued:

• AJ Brown (captain)
• Packers DST
• Sammy Watkins

Good luck and bink a unique!

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