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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Eagles vs. Vikings

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Eagles vs. Vikings

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt optimizations along with their projected ownership

Similarly to the Showdown SZN breakdown for titans vs. Bills (Found here) We have a top end RB being overvalued. Dalvin cook looks to be one of the highest owned players on the slate, but the optimizations don't find him valuable at all. This is likely a combination of a more pass heavy offense centered around receiver talent which hurts the value of Cook overall.

The most undervalued captain looks like Jalen Hurts, which is pretty surprising! He's one of the highest upside QBs in the league and the optimizations have him as nearly 20% underowned at the captain slot. On the other hand, Kirk cousins appears to be an undervalued FLEX option.

A couple notes:

  • Justin Jefferson appears to be appropriately valued, but Adam Thielen is undervalued quite a bit.
  • DeVonta Smith looks to be considerably overvalued.

Duplication projections and lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. to clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $10 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $10 contest on Draftkings

Here are some notes on the highest dupes:

  • The most used captain in the high dupes is Jalen Hurts.
  • Justin Jefferson ends up in none of the highest duped lineups here, but will certainly be popular.
  • Devonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn end up the most frequent in the FLEX position.
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DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

These have been some pretty interesting results overall, especially in regards to Jalen Hurts. While he appears to be undervalued as a captain, the way that you build around him is vital in keeping the ownership low. Likewise, there is a lot of edge to be had with the running backs. If you fade Dalvin Cook, you gain lots of easy leverage. On the other hand if you take a shot on Boston Scott or Trey Sermon (if active) you have a good gamble at a high finish. In sum, the best way to approach this slate looks like Jalen Hurts captain and fading Dalvin Cook.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Dalvin Cook
  • DeVonta Smith

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Jalen Hurts (CPT)
  • Adam Thielen

Good luck tonight!

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