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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Giants vs. Cowboys

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Giants vs. Cowboys

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

UPDATE 5:53PM EST – With Dalton Schultz downgraded, optimizations were reran and ownership updated. Jake Ferguson looks strong as a flex play at 25% in the optimizations. Saquon Barkley is now utilized in nearly 96% of all optimizations. He's a pretty hard fade.

Saquon Barkley at captain. That’s it. That’s the tweet.

One observation worth saying here is that Daniel Jones is overvalued at captain, but he’s undervalued at FLEX. This makes sense intuitively but is something that the field might end up missing. His projected captain ownership at 16% is significantly over the optimization rate at 2.40%.

In terms of undervalued captains, it’s just Saquon Barkley. You could argue that Zeke and Shepard are technically undervalued as well. However, in anything but the largest of large field GPPs you should just be using Barkley. His projected captain ownership of 18% is nowhere near the optimization rate of 49.50%.

One last note is how the field will handle Jalen Tolbert. As of now, he looks to be extremely undervalued based on the optimizations. If he stays as a less than 5% owned player, he’s the key to this slate.

Duplication projections and lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. to clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

op 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
op 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

The captain ownership is spread out here, but there is a pretty large chunk going to Richie James Jr.. His price and projection make him an attractive captain that allows people to fit the other expensive pieces. After him, we see some Zeke, Barkley, and then the kickers.

Here are some notes on the highest dupes:

  • The big note here is that CeeDee Lamb isn’t in the highest dupes as a captain.
  • Likewise, neither are Daniel Jones or Cooper Rush, which could give quite a bit of edge in large field GPPs if you fade Saquon.
  • Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley are the most used options in the flex, while Sterling Shepard and Tony Pollard end up underutilized.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This slate is why Showdown exists. There is massive uncertainty with both of these teams that people will have misplaced confidence towards. Likewise, there are cheap, attractive options on both teams that will cause heavy duplication towards the top. Considering there are solid options gaining ownership, the name of the game tonight is figuring out how to be different from the field. That form of indirect leverage is all you need on slates like tonight’s. Overall, starting with Saquon Barkley and using the lower ownership options on each team is the way to find success.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Daniel Jones (CPT)
  • Cooper Rush
  • CeeDee Lamb

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Saquon Barkley (CPT)
  • Jalen Tolbert
  • Kickers

Good luck tonight!

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