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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Packers vs. Bears

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Packers vs. Bears

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt optimizations along with their projected ownership

There are a couple things that pop out here that are worth addressing right off the bat. Firstly, the Amari Rodgers captain usage in the optimizations is off the charts, but it requires some context. When running up to 5,000 optimals for this slate, it runs out of room pretty quickly to build “competitive” lineups. Because of this, Amari Rodgers gets a lot of captain usage just to create more that project well. For the purpose of things here, we will ignore them.

The other noticeable piece here is Justin Fields being the most valuable captain with Aaron Rodgers being the more popular choice. While both look to to have high ownership, and both are used in around 30% of lineups as a flex, it's Fields with more captain exposure. This should represent an inefficiency by the field that is easy to exploit.

This showdown looks to be one that is much more spread out because of the nature of the receiving options and no feature back on either side. With that being said, avoiding dupes and accepting the risk with the secondary options will be a very strong GPP strategy. Likewise, simply being in the mindset that the Bears could lead or win this game will give you an edge in your builds.

A couple notes:

  • AJ Dillon captain ownership is projected to be far too high based on optimizations.
  • Secondary WR options for GB look to be undervalued as FLEX options.

Duplication projections and lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. to clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $10 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $10 contest on Draftkings

Here are some notes on the highest dupes:

  • There are no Aaron Jones captain lineups, which might represent an edge.
  • The highest owned captain here by far is Cole Kmet, meaning he is likely going to be overvalued.
  • Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields, and AJ Dillon are all very highly rostered in these high dupe lineups as FLEX players.
  • Neither of Byron Pringle or Sammy Watkins are used at all in the highest dupes, so plugging them in is a good way to push towards more unique builds.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This looks like an awesome showdown to play because of the massive uncertainty on the secondary options for both teams. Even if you build a highly duplicated lineup (based on predictions) you can drastically reduce the ownership with a single viable swap. Likewise, ownership is still too concentrated on guys like Cole Kmet and Aaron Jones, which represents upside for the other high ceiling players available. Overall, using Justin Fields at captain seems like a smart way to start off your builds in large field tournaments.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • AJ Dillon
  • Cole Kmet (CPT)

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Byron Pringle
  • Sammy Watkins
  • Amari Rodgers (FLEX)

Good luck tonight!

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