Posted on Leave a comment

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Packers vs. Giants

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Packers vs. Giants

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • The injuries to the NYG WR group have really shook things up and introduced some tasty uncertainty to this contest.
  • The Packers defense should be very highly owned, and represents an easy way to differentiate with the Giants position players at captain.
  • The field appears to be undervaluing Darius Slayton, making him a premium option in showdown.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

Contrary to a lot of the showdowns we play, there aren't many players looking way overvalued at captain based on the optimizations for this one. The biggest offenders are actually Robert Tonyan and the Packers defense. Bother look to have around 4-5% captain ownership and have just .12% exposure in the optimizations. The other main one appears to be Romeo Doubs at 11.90% captain ownership but just 4.22% in the optimizations.

On the other hand, there are plenty of undervalued guys. Darius Slayton and Daniel Bellinger both look undervalued as both captain and FLEX players. As captain, Slayton is a 16% exposure in the optimizations but just played 1-2% based on ownership projections. Bellinger is a more muted play than that, but still a 6% captain in the optimizations. Likewise, both are undervalued FLEX options by a considerable amount.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

The predicted dupes are pretty low, but that has more to do with a smaller top field than normal for this contest. The captain ownership mostly belongs to Richie James Jr., but it spreads to Slayton and Barkley as well. There’s no Aaron Jones or Aaron Rodgers predicted up here, but take that with some salt as they are affordable and should be highly owned. 

As far as FLEX options, Aaron Jones and Saquon Barkley show up in 80%+ of all highly predicted duplications and it gets spread out from there. It is worth noting that Marcus Johnson, a min price option for the Giants, doesn’t show up at all and could be a good differentiation piece.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is a pretty crazy showdown because of the amount of injuries to the Giants WR group. They can barely field a full group, so we should expect a lot of Saquon and two-TE sets. Likewise, the Packers offense has been lackluster and might be overvalued even in an easy spot. The typical roster construction should be Packers heavy with the Packers defense, so building with a focus on the Giants will be more than enough to differentiate you from the field in large field stuff.

Overall based on the optimizations the best path tonight just to take advantage of (hopefully) lower ownership on Darius Slayton. Build around him, Bellinger, and Saquon Barkley and hope the Giants win!

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Robert Tonyan
  • Packers
  • Romeo Doubs (CPT)

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Darius Slayton
  • Daniel Bellinger
  • Kickers

Good luck and bink a unique!

Leave a Reply