Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.
- The running game for the Packers looks valuable, but people are ignoring AJ Dillon when building in that context.
- The highest predicted dupes are built with cheaper captains and a Packers emphasis, so mix in some Van Jefferson or Tyler Higbee.
- The clear path here is a Packers onslaught with AJ Dillon, but Rams stacks offer more relative value for larger fields.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain and FLEX ownership distributions
The most undervalued player on this slate based on optimizations is AJ Dillon. He has exposures at captain 22.26% of the time with a projected ownership there of only 9%. Likewise, his FLEX exposures trump his projected ownership 58% to 38%. On the other hand, the most overvalued captain is looking like Allen Lazard. His exposures are 2.6% at captain and 23.50% at FLEX while his projected ownerships are 8% and 35.70% respectively. There are no big avoids tonight, so just be mindful of the players with higher projected ownership than exposures in the table above when you build.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
With high priced players like Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones being used a lot in the FLEX, we can expect some of the cheaper options at captain. Both kickers will make there way up there along with the Packers DST. Interestingly, we will see some Ben Skowronek captain lineups even in 4-2 Packers builds because of the savings he offers. It’s worth noting that Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee look to be left out of nearly all the highest predicted dupes, making them important pieces when looking for differenations.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
A lot of people will likely be playing some variation of Packers DST with the run game on this slate. Aaron Jones is really popular, and people think the Rams suck. It’s a fair strategy, but it’s not giving enough credence to AJ Dillon as an option. He is coming in at about half the ownership of Aaron Jones and is a natural pivot in the exact same gamescript. Not to mention the Rams could very easily keep this close or flip the script entirely considering how bad the Packers have been at times this year. Overall it’s looking like Aaron Jones is either a fade or a compliment to AJ Dillon lineups overall.
In sum, there are two pretty clear paths in larger fields. Play AJ Dillon instead of Aaron Jones and build for a 4-2 or 5-1 Packers stomp, or play for a shootout with an emphasis on the Rams side. Both options given plenty of upside in all formats but the Rams play makes the most sense in much larger fields like the main GPP.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Ben Skowronek
- Cam Akers
- Packers DST
Some players that look undervalued:
- AJ Dillon
- Baker Mayfield
- Rams DST
Good luck and bink a unique!
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