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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Patriots vs. Bears

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Patriots vs. Bears

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • Darnell Mooney represents a significant underestimation by the field and should be a priority in all formats.
  • Avoiding a Patriots slugfest roster construction is a good way to build in uniqueness while making the game suck less overall

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

By far the most undervalued captain tonight based on optimizations is Darnell Mooney. His exposure in the optimizations sit at nearly 24% while he is projected to be just 7% owned at the slot. Likewise he appears undervalued at the FLEX spot as well. The optimizations have him in 55% of lineups while his projected ownership is just 33%. He profiles as a very strong priority in all formats.

On the other hand we have David Montgomery as the most overvalued play. Especially when you consider how strong of a play his teammate Mooney is, this makes plenty of sense. Optimizations don’t have him as a viable captain whatsoever while his projected ownership there is about 9%. His FLEX ownership is too high as well, as it’s projected at 39% while the exposures in the optimizations are just 2%. 

Some other notes:

  • It’s no surprise, but the Patriots defense appears a bit overvalued here.
  • Jonnu Smith is the Patriots TE to go after according to optimizations, not Hunter Henry.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

The main captain exposures in the lineups above go to kickers, defenses, and Darnell Mooney. Likewise we see a bit of exposure to both QBs as well. The names we don’t see at captain in the highest projected dupes are either of Rhaomndre Stevenson or Damien Harris. It could be that the field is not willing to take a shot on either, which represents some edge overall.

At the FLEX we end up with 80%+ of Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Nick Folk. The Patriots defense also shows up, but not the Bears, which is another angel to attack. It’s also worth mentioning the lack of Patriots receiving options outside of Jakobi Meyers in this list. Going with a Patriots passing game might be an interesting way to be unique.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

I commend anyone who plays this one, to be honest. It’s hard to stomach a defenses matchup like this. However, the vast majority of the field will be building for a slugfest, so building for a shootout is a way to be unique with upside. Likewise, if the game ends up not sucking, it’s a double dip for those that built for a good game. Regardless, this showdown looks to have some low dupe opportunity with the Patriots secondary receiving options and avoiding David Montgomery.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • David Montgomery
  • Patriots Defense

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Darnell Mooney
  • Jonnu Smith
  • Bears Defense

Good luck and bink a unique!

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