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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Raiders vs. Rams

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • If my momma ever did one thing right with me, it was teach me not to play a DST in showdown when it has a chance at 50%+ ownership.
  • There are some interesting options when it comes to avoiding high duplications, and Ben Skowronek is one of the ones with the best floor/ceiling.
  • You don’t have to get weird tonight to be different, you just have to come to the realization that the Raiders aren’t very good and grab more Rams.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

There’s a handful of players on the slate that are gaining too much traction, but the most overvalued option is the Raiders DST. They project for 8.5% ownership in the captain slot and end up there 0% of the time in the optimizations. Likewise, they project at 37% ownership at FLEX and show up with just 4% exposure in the optimizations. Granted, there’s lots of reasons to like the Raiders D tonight, but it’s gone overboard. They make for a terrific fade in tournaments.

On the other hand the most undervalued play is John Wolford. His exposure in the optimizations at captain are around 7% while his projected ownership there is just 2%. There’s an even larger difference at flex, with his exposures sitting at 43% and his projected ownership only 18%. I’ve mentioned it in this article before, but anytime you can get a QB at low ownership in showdown it’s a good idea to do so. Especially if they have rushing upside like Wolford.

A couple other notes:

  • Both TEs look to be pretty overvalued from their upside.
  • The Rams DST looks like a better play than the Raiders at about 4x less ownership
  • There are a handful of super cheap punt options that are all viable but have an equally low chance of working out.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The highest owned captain tonight is Davante Adams, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. After him, it’s Josh Jacobs, which should also come at not much of a surprise! After that things are spread out quite a bit. Worth noting the lack of Raiders DST here, which is interesting. If you are going to play them, playing them at captain makes the most sense based on the differentiation. Other interesting players missing from captain here: John Wolford, Tyler Higbee, Ben Skowronek.

FLEX options here are well spread, but have an emphasis on Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Daniel carlson. All three of those players show up in 70%+ of the lineups predicted to be duplicated at the highest rate. Once again, we have a lack of Ben Skowronek here, which makes him a solid option in GPPs. Should the Rams make this competitive, he could garner a pretty great targetshare.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Slates like this are awesome for contrarian players because you don’t even have to try. Likely 60%+ of the field will be playing two or less Rams options in their lineups, and there will be a QB under 30% owned. The Raiders DST is conservatively projected at 35% owned and could hit in the 50%+ range. This is a perfect opportunity to think to yourself, “Man, the Raiders kind of suck, let’s just hope they suck more than anticipated and stack the Rams”. If you wanted to be a real asshole about it, you could go Cam Akers captain with the Rams DST and play for a handed Rams stomp. The contrarian options are hilarious and endless!

Based on optimizations, You likely don’t want to go with a Rams stomp, but utilizing John Wolford in your Davante Adams captain lineups is a fruitful way to build. Ben Skowronek is pretty undervalued as well, so plug him in for the added differentiation. The big fades here are the Raiders DST and the TEs for both teams.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Raiders DST
  • Both TEs
  • Cam Akers

Some players that look undervalued:

  • John Wolford
  • Rams DST
  • Ben Skowronek

Good luck and bink a unique!

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