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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Rams vs. 49ers

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Rams vs. 49ers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • Contrary to last night, both QBs look to be overvalued and unnecessary parts of most build paths based on optimizations.
  • Cam Akers is projected to be a relatively high owned player even though there's a lot of uncertainty around his role in this offense.
  • The common build path involves a cheaper captain with Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel as FLEX, so using them at captain is a strong play in GPPs.

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

The big observation here is the lack of Jimmy G in the optimizations. His projected ownerships for CPT and FLEX are 11.09% and 42.12%, respectively. However, he isn’t in the optimizations as a captain whatsoever and he’s only got 5.49% exposure at FLEX. This position alone is enough to justify taking shots on this slate in avoidance of the game managing QB.

The largest deviation in terms of a player being undervalued goes to Kyle Juszlsufihnwlkejn, who is always live to grab a rushing TD and a couple catches. However, the main player with upside looking undervalued is Ben Skowronek. He lands in 33% of the optimizations as a FLEX compared to just 19.22% projected ownership.

A couple other notes:

  • Similarly to Jimmy G, Matthew Stafford looks pretty overvalued all things considered.
  • Both Rams RBs appear to be overvalued as well, especially considered the threat of Malcolm Brown being active tonight.
  • All pass catchers for the 49ers outside of Deebo Samuel look a bit overvalued, which correlates with how bad Jimmy G appears in optimizations.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

That is a lot of Cooper Kupp, my dudes. In fact, Kupp is used in every single highly duped lineup as either a captain or a FLEX. Tyler Higbee shows up as the most common captain in around half of the 20 highest predicted dupes here. Avoiding him as a captain could be an easy way to be different in your builds. Jimmy G doesn’t show up very often here, but considering his low exposures in the optimizations, he’s better off not being used in general. Overall, the most common build path is going to be a cheap captain with Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Tyler Higbee.

Here are some other notes on the highest dupes:

  • Interestingly neither defense is used much in high predicted dupes, which speaks to their ability to give easy differentiation tonight.
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. is used plenty as a FLEX, but not as a captain, which is something to consider.
  • There are very few punts in the high dupes, so those low priced options could add some nice volatility and upside in large field GPPs.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

The field generally makes the mistake of using the 49ers QB in showdown and tonight is no different. The TD expectation for the 49ers leans heavily in favor of rushing TDs because of their gameplan. Likewise, the upside for Jimmy G is lackluster and the upside for Jeff Wilson Jr. is much higher. It’s the opposite for the Rams, where their stable of receivers has more upside than their RBs. This is thanks to a strong QB, a good pass rate, and a split backfield. The optimizations want to leverage both of these points and create great direct leverage in lineups.

Overall based on the optimizations the best path is avoiding both QBs, focusing on Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee, and grabbing upside for Jeff Wilson Jr. for the 49ers.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Cam Akers
  • Jimmy G

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Cooper Kupp (CPT)
  • Ben Skowronek
  • Kyle Juzloiuherfnliuwnefjk

Good luck and bink a unique!

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