Posted on Leave a comment

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Ravens vs. Bengals

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Ravens vs. Bengals

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • No Rashod Bateman means opportunity for Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson, so making sure to include them in your pool is vital.
  • The common build path will likely be a cheap captain to fit all the studs, so get different with expensive options instead.
  • Look to avoid Ja’Marr Chase in lieu of Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd for an easy way to differentiate.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

Starting things off, the most overvalued player tonight looks to be Ja’Marr Chase. Optimizations have him at just .12% captain exposure while he is projected at 11%. Likewise his FLEX exposure is 13% while he is projected to hit 42%. Considering how strong the entire WR group is for the Bengals, it’s no surprise one would be an odd man out in value.

In terms of undervalued players, it’s clear that Mark Andrews is vastly underrated as a captain tonight. He comes in at 24.46% captain exposure along with 51.44% FLEX. On the other hand, he is projected at just 12.55% captain ownership along with 44.81% FLEX ownership. While he will be one of the highest owned players overall, it appears he won’t quite be owned enough.

Some other notes on the exposures and projected ownerships:

  • Interestingly, Evan McPherson appears appropriately owned while Justin Tucker looks to be overvalued by the field.
  • The punts of Chris Evans and James Proche II both look undervalued to fit all the studs.
  • The Ravens defense looks to be more overvalued than the Bengals, but neither are terrific plays regardless.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

There are a lot of Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson as captains here, which makes a lot of sense. Both plays are cheap but could step into a strong role with no Rashod Bateman. Likewise, they allow you to fit in Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, who appear in nearly all the lineups as a FLEX option. The other highly owned captains in these high duped lineups are cheap players as well, so pushing for expensive options at captain could be a nice way to leverage the field. 

As noted above, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews are in nearly every lineup as a FLEX option. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and J.K. Dobbins are frequent as well. There isn’t much Ja’Marr Chase or Joe Mixon, which is an interesting thing to think through. Going with a punt captain along with Joe Mixon instead of Mark Andrews is a way to be different without losing much projection equity.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

With no Rashod Bateman, we have some interesting possibilities and angles to exploit for this contest. It’s likely to be Devin Duvernay stepping up, but both Demarcus Robinson and James Proche II have upside in that spot as well. Getting the right one will likely decide your showdown fate tonight. On the other hand, the Bengals have four capable receivers as well as Joe Mixon who can catch out of the backfield. While they aren’t as explosive as the Ravens, they certainly have individual upside. Spreading exposure around them makes a lot of sense.

In sum, putting focus on Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Tee Higgins seems right based on optimizations. Taking shots on Duvernay/Robinson will be important as well, but the answer might end up being Isaiah Likely at much lower ownership.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Ja’Marr Chase
  • Joe Burrow (Captain)
  • Justin Tucker

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Mark Andrews (captain)
  • Tee Higgins
  • James Proche II (FLEX)

Good luck and bink a unique!

Leave a Reply