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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Ravens vs. Buccaneers

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Ravens vs. Buccaneers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • Lamar Jackson has some of the highest ownership projections at both captain and FLEX, but it appears he is still undervalued and should be prioritized.
  • The highest duplicated lineups are filled with both QBs and their main weapons, so utilizing some of the WR2s and WR3s can be an easy way to differentiate.
  • Building for a Ravens onslaught is an interesting and unique way to build around Lamar Jackson and the ravens defense in large field GPPs.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership

It’s always a fun slate when the highest ownership projection at captain looks to still be undervalued. We have that tonight with Lamar Jackson, who projects at 33% ownership in the captain slot but deserves around 57% based on optimizations. Although the Ravens have been on a cold streak lately, there’s no denial of Jackson’s upside. Especially in a game with a lot of star power he needs to be a priority. Moreover, his FLEX ownership is too high, but only because more of his overall ownership deserves to be in the captain spot.

In terms of overvalued options, the most striking is Mike Evans. He doesn’t show up as a captain at all in the optimizations and is only exposed as a FLEX 5.28% of the time. This mostly comes as a consequence of the Bucs offense being lackluster and his low involvement outside of the redzone. His projected ownership at captain/FLEX is 4.63%/27.21% which are still pretty muted all together, but there’s more edge beneath it. 

Some other notes:

  • The Ravens defense appears to be significantly underowned in a spot against Tom Brady and his marital struggles.
  • Kenyan Drake seems to be undervalued according to optimizations, and that’s even with a strong workload for Gus Edwards.
  • Breshad Perriman looks like a terrific punt option with no Russell Gage available.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

The highest exposure at captain in the top duplicated lineups looks to be Lamar Jackson, but as discussed above, he’s the most valuable option by far. This is a situation where you’ll typically try to be different elsewhere and lower dupes in the FLEX. Regardless, he makes up 40% of the captains of the highest duplications. Outside of him, things are spread between the kickers, Tom Brady, and the Buccaneers defense. No site of Leonard Fournette or Mark Andrews in the highest dupes as a captain, so both of them may be easy ways to differentiate yourself.

When it comes to FLEX, the most frequently found options are Tom Brady and Chris Godwin. It’s worth noting that Lamar Jackson is there in 60% as a FLEX, making him someone that is played in all the highest duplications between FLEX and Captain. Some other highly exposed players here are Ryan Succop and Cade Otton who both help fit the studs. The secondary WRs for both teams are lacking here, so using them as a punt instead of kickers or defenses has upside.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is mostly a sentiment based showdown between two ailing teams that seem to be headed for disastrous seasons. However, both of these offenses have star power and top tier QBs, so those issues will get ironed out eventually. Playing this showdown as if it’s a shootout is a strong way to build, but the better way might be to make the assumption that the Bucs are actually bad. Based on the ownership and optimizations, most of the Bucs options are overvalued while the Ravens are undervalued. Specifically, going with a Lamar Jackson captain and Ravens DST in the FLEX is a way to build a lot of win equity into your lineups.

In any case, this slate will have a lot of heavily duplicated lineups. Make sure you are reticent of how much ownership you take on or you can lose expected value quickly!

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Mike Evans
  • Buccaneers DST
  • Gus Edwards

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Lamar Jackson (Captain)
  • Ravens DST
  • Kenyan Drake

Good luck and bink a unique!

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