Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
I take no pleasure in writing about yet another QB having the most positive leverage gained at captain, and I take even less pleasure, negative pleasure even, in saying that it is Jake Browning. His projected ownership at captain is just 8.56%, while his exposure in winning frames in nearly 22%, making him nearly twice as valuable as the field is evaluating him to be.
The worst captain in terms of leverage gained is the Jaguars defense, which of course makes sense if Browning is rating out exceptionally well.
Some other consistently negative options were Trevor Lawrence and Evan Engram, while Brandon McManus and Ja’Marr Chase both looked either positive or neutral in the majority of runs.
FLEX ownership distributions
As far as FLEX leverage goes, the most consistently positive option was Travis Etienne Jr. followed by Brandon McManus. In this specific run, Etienne is projected at 42% ownership with an exposure rate of 74%, giving him a boatload of leverage cushion for any mishaps in ownership projection.
The most consistently negative option was, of course, the Jaguars DST. It’s projected at around 28% ownership and was never higher than 10% exposure in the sims that I ran. Likewise, Evan Engram looked bad pretty consistently as well as Calvin Ridley.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
As expected, there’s a lot of kicker captain in the high projected dupes group here, though we also have some Mixon and Jaguars CPT showing up. The main FLEX combo people are going to be jamming in is Lawrence/Etienne/Mixon/Jaguars, which makes this a pretty easy slate in terms of duplication mitigation. All you really have to do is fade the Jaguars DST and you are on the right track.
Another note: These aggregate ownerships are really high, with 242 being a big cap. Expect to see a lot of highly duplicated lineups and make sure to avoid the dupe train. You don’t wanna split with 134 people and end up being marketing for a company that promotes that kind of thing!
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
I actually really, really like this slate. It’s really easy to navigate and I think the general consensus is both overestimating the strength of the Jaguars and underprojecting the upside of the Bengals.
The majority of people are aiming for either a 4-2 or 5-1 build with a lean towards the Jaguars, with a focus on Etienne/Lawrence/Jags-DST as a core. With how strong Browning looks as a value in the sims, and how bad the Jaguars DST looks, there’s a clear path to differentiation and upside by going for a competitive or Bengals win gamescript.
Especially considering the skill players for the Bengals are arguably better than those of the Jaguars, it’s not hard to imagine a game where the Jags let down and burn 60% of the field. You aren’t going to get a chance to have Ja’Marr Chase at captain at like 10% owned in very many showdown slates, and that’s one of those things you absolutely should leverage.
My favorite build is either Browning or Chase at captain with a 4-2 Bengals lean, looking for the Jags to let down. You could also go with a 3-3 with the same captain choices and play for a competitive game, but that’s harder to pull off without dumpster diving on a slate without a lot of strong value.
Either way, go Bengals!
Some players that look overvalued:
- Jaguars DST
- Calvin Ridley
- Jags onslaughts
Some players that look undervalued:
- Bengals onslaughts
- Jake Browning
- Brandon McManus
Good luck and bink a unique
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