NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Titans vs. Packers

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

• Derrick Henry is the best option at captain by a longshot, so he’s an obvious priority when starting your builds.
• The highest duplicated lineups will have a variety of captains but a predictable group in the FLEX, so you’ll have some easy decisions to make in fades.
• There is a clear focus on the Packers side of the ball, so building with a lean towards the Titans makes sense in larger fields.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The clear and away best captain in the optimizations is Derrick Henry. He shows up in 58% of the optimizations while his projected ownership there is only 21%. In fact, that projected ownership is less than Aaron Rodgers, who is a much better FLEX. After a let down game last week, let's hope the field undervalues Henry in a perceived negative gamescript. 

The most overvalued captain today is going to be Chrstian Watson. His exposure in the optimizations is a hearty 0% while his projected ownership at the position is 7%. Likewise, his FLEX exposures are just 9% with a projected mark of 33.53%. Coming off a complete outlier performance with three touchdowns on eight targets, he will surely be a popular target. Optimizations are not buying it.

Some other notes on the exposures and projected ownership:

• Tannehill as both a captain and FLEX option is well undervalued by the field.
• The Packers defense is a tad overvalued but still a surprisingly strong play against a Titans squad with a low pass rate.
• Randall Cobb is a really important option to consider based on his minimum price and high projected ownership.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

We see some really interesting dupe predictions here because of how popular Randall Cobb looks to be in all positions. With a minimum priced player projecting at high ownership, it forces in the other expensive and high upside options. This produces highly duplicated lineups in more than just the top end of salary ranges, so you have to be reticent of that.

The highest exposed captains in these lineups look to be Henry, Rodgers, and Burks along with some Cobb. Because of the amount of value present on this slate, you’ll end up with a nice spread of captains. This means that there are no clear ways to differentiate at that slot and it’s likely best to play the best plays there.

When we take a look at the FLEX, we see Henry, Rodgers, and Jones in nearly every lineup. These three are going to be the main points of leverage on the slate. Likewise, we end up with Burks and Cobb, popular captain options, spread across FLEX spots as well. It’s worth noting the lack of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who had a great game last week, as well as a lack of Sammy Watkins. Both of these receivers have wide ranges of outcomes and high ceilings for large field GPPs.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is one of those showdown slates with a bevy of options and relatively condensed ownership. We can see based on the exposures and dupe predictions that the secondary WRs are getting very little looks from the field. This means that building in an optimal fashion with simple pivots to lower value pieces should be enough in most formats. In the large fields, there are clear leverage pieces that need consideration and so long as you avoid the highest owned combinations you’ll be fine.

In terms of what the optimizations find as the best construction, it starts with Derrick Henry captain. He’s by far the best option, but it leads to a specific gamescript as well. Utilizing him as captain with an undervalued Titans DST along with one of the Titans WRs is a strong start. Avoiding Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb in large field GPPs then gives you more than enough relative value to win.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Christian Watson
• Aaron Rodgers (captain)
• Robert Tonyan

Some players that look undervalued:

• Derrick Henry (captain)
• Packers DST (FLEX)
• Ryan Tannehill

Good luck and bink a unique!

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