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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Vikings vs. Saints

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Vikings vs. Saints

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara both look overvalued.
  • The QBs are very common in the lineups predicted to be duplicated the most in the main large field GPP.
  • The Saints WR situation makes for a very fun showdown even if it could get really ugly.

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership (After Kamara ruled out)
Player ownerships for CPT and FLEX from Paydirt DFS optimizations along with their projected ownership (After Kamara ruled out)

UPDATE 8:35AM EST: Alvin Kamara has been ruled out, leading the way for Mark Ingram to be the main RB for the Saints. Likewise, they have Latavius Murray up from the practice squad and Dwayne Washington for depth as well. Overall, this lowers all expectations for the Saints. After rerunning optimizations, Justin Jefferson is still undervalued, Dalvin Cook is still overvalued, and Juwan Johnson begins to pop as a value play.

Another showdown slate with Dalvin Cook, and another one where he is overrated by the field. Especially considering his shoulder injury, there's no reason he should have upwards of 12% captain ownership. Overall, his role in the offense is game script dependent and he will likely have his snaps monitored. Lastly, considering Alexander Mattison is more than capable, there's no reason to expect a full workload here. He shows up in less than 1% of optimizations as captain.

On the other hand, Justin Jefferson looks considerably undervalued as a captain. Optimizations have him at 37.70% while the projected ownership is just 17.07%. Granted, his FLEX ownership is much more in line, but that may speak to roster construction constraints more than anything. He's the highest upside player in this game and should be a priority at captain.

A couple other notes:

  • Alvin Kamara is a tad overvalued at captain, but still the fourth highest in optimizations at 7.40% exposure.
  • It's going to be a crapshoot at WR for the Saints, but Marquez Callaway looks underrated.
  • Johnny Mundt may be a high value punt to afford Justin Jefferson at captain.

Duplication projections and lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings
Top 20 DFS lineups in predicted dupes based on the large $15 contest on Draftkings

The name of the game in the highest dupes is QB captain, which isn't much of a surprise. When the field has plenty of value to use, QB captain ends up being highly accessible. Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins make up 50%+ of the captains in the highest predicted dupes, with Jarvis Landry the next highest. For the most part, what this means is that using WR or RB at captain is going to be an easy way to diversify.

Here are some other notes on the highest dupes:

  • There’s a large cluster of players highly exposed at FLEX in the optimizations, including both QBs, the three high end WRs, and Alvin Kamara.
  • Speaking of Kamara, he is only in two of the highest predicted dupes and could be undervalued with the right roster construction.
  • Kickers and defenses are nowhere to be found at captain, even though this game could be ugly, making them interesting large field plays.
  • Once again, no sight of Justin Jefferson, solidifying him as a strong way to diversify at captain in large field GPPs.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

London games are a special kind of showdown, where you can wake up and drink some coffee while you tilt a backup TE vulturing a rushing TD. Embrace it and be one with the degeneracy. This game in particular looks great from a showdown standpoint because of the uncertainty at WR for the Saints. Likewise, Dalvin Cook being overvalued and Justin Jefferson being undervalued (at captain) makes for some natural edge. Overall, it looks like one of the best ways to build is with Justin Jefferson at captain with lower owned value from the Saints and possibly Wil Lutz.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Dalvin Cook
  • Alvin Kamara (FLEX) SCRATCHED
  • Alexander Mattison

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Justin Jefferson (CPT)
  • Jarvis Landry
  • Marquez Callaway
  • Juwan Johnson (After update)

Good luck and bink a unique!

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