Posted on Leave a comment

NFL DFS Thoughts and Notes Week 2 09.19.2021

Chargers vs. Cowboys (Chargers -3, O/U 55)

General thoughts: Chalkiest game of the week by a longshot and it's easy to see why. Highest over/under, super high adjusted pass rates for both teams, skinny target trees. Nothing to hate here.

  • The vast majority of the stacks in this game will be centered around a QB/WR/WR stack with a WR on the comeback
  • An easy way to be different is to use one of the TEs for either team as part of the main correlation
  • There's a very clear path to both RBs doing the damage in this one and not the receivers, so utilizing Ekeler or Elliot as a direct leverage option is a solid way to build in large field GPPs
Preferred Roster Construction

If you are building with a stack on either side of this game, I suggest fading Najee Harris as it'll be too much chalk to eat in a single GPP entry. I personally will have this stack though I'm not sure how I will have the secondary correlations constructed.

Seahawks vs. Titans (Seahawks -6, O/U 53.5)

General thoughts: Seahawks are the highest projected stack in the Paydirt models, though they are fucking expensive and there's a lot less value to utilize this week so it does make things difficult. The game has a slightly lower O/U than the DAL/LAC game and should be half as highly owned, making it an ideal GPP option.

  • Stacking either side of this game makes a lot of sense, though the TEN side is considerably more cost friendly
  • I do have my concerns on Pete Carroll deciding to be a buzzkill and reigning Russ in, but that doesn't usually happen until like week four so maybe we are safe
  • Derrick Henry has kinda been creeping up in some discussion this week, which is weird, and I much prefer the Chris Carson side
  • That being said, playing Derrick Henry with a DK Metcalf correlation in the assumption that the Titans get a good lead on the back of Henry and the Seahawks have to pass to catch up is an interesting way to build a secondary for your lineups
Preferred Lineup Construction

Favorite GPP stack right here. Think it goes way underowned relative to the LAC/DAL and LAR stacks with just as much if not more upside.

Bucs vs. Falcons (Bucs -13, O/U 52)

General thoughts: Bucs are, like, 69 point favorites. Falcons might be completely well done steak at this point. Should be a slaughter.

  • Bucs stacks are certainly in play here even as massive favorites because they have the highest team total on the slate by a good amount.
  • Could also go with Leonard Fournette as a low owned massive favorite RB
  • The question with this game is if the Falcons are going to continue to play like absolute morons. A lot of questions should be answered this week about how the Falcons plan to play moving forward.
Preferred Lineup Construction

Of course, you could use any combination here of Godwin/Evans/Brown/Gronk and I wouldn't call you out on it. The only options from ATL you have interest in are Ridley and Pitts, and if you use a QB/WR/WR with the Bucs you would ideally go Pitts as the comeback.

Cardinals vs. Vikings (Cardinals -4, O/U 51)

General thoughts: Another interesting GPP spot here with the Cardinals, who looked incredible in week 1, going up against a Vikings team that is super underrated in terms of passing upside. It was Adam Thielen week last week, but Justin Jefferson is still the guy you want for upside in this offense.

  • Kyler/Hopkins stacks are going to be money all year, but with how much they rely on Hopkins when they need to make something happen the real upside is going to be unlocked by their opponents forcing their hand
  • That said, the Vikings are a team that want to run the ball and need their opponent to push their pace in order to get into a good passing stance
  • No, Christian Kirk does not unlock a ceiling higher than Hopkins
Preferred Lineup Construction

There is a way that the Vikings end up getting a lead with Cook and a Cook/Hopkins correlation is the way to go (very similar to the Titans/Seahawks situation) so think about that as a secondary correlation that should be super low owned and very strong. I'm not sure if I land here today, but I do like the lineup direction and it leaves a lot of room since it's just QB/WR/oWR.

Eagles vs. 49ers (49ers -3, O/U 49)

General thoughts: It is…. really hard for me to get into this game for DFS. The Eagles side is fine with a QB/WR/WR stack but the 49ers just hate passing in the redzone which hurts a lot of their upside in GPPs. The uncertainty in their receiving core doesn't make things easier.

  • Hurts and Devonta Smith maintain a strong connection and look to be a good pairing with Reagor a solid WR2 on the team and in the right games it's going to be a very high upside stack
  • This doesn't look like that game
  • The most likely outcome here is the 49ers play keepaway and the Eagles score a couple times but not anything that is valuable on a slate with so many other options
  • We can't even use a RB for the 49ers because we have literally no idea who they are going to feature or if it will even matter

I don't have a preferred lineup here because I don't have interest in the game for DFS. Using Devonta Smith as a one off is likely fine.

Dolphins vs. Bills (Bills -3.5, O/U 48)

General thoughts: Love the Bills side here and I'm shocked that they are just 3.5 point favorites. Like, That's an insane line and an overreaction to week 1 in a big way, I think. But I digress. With no Will Fuller, the Dolphins should continue to feature Parker and Waddle as their top wideouts and the Bills will use Diggs and Sanders for upside. It's an easy game to break down.

  • I won't touch the Dolphins stacks because I think Tua is kind of not good, so a QB/WR/WR/oWR with a Bills side is what I would want
  • The RB situation is super gross for the Dolphins and something I want no part of and Zack Moss being back for the Bills means that Singletary is unusable
  • So yeah, Bills stacks. EZ Game.
Preferred Lineup Construction

You could go QB/WR/oWR here and go with either Diggs or Sanders if you wanted to since Allen does so much with his legs. I won't fight you there.

Browns vs. Texans (Browns -13.5, O/U 48)

General thoughts: The Browns are gigantic favorites here over a Texans team that looked pretty good last week. However, it's very fair to say that the Texans only looked pretty good because of how inept Urban Meyer is. Soooooooo. Browns are in a fantastic spot to tee off on this team.

  • With no OBJ, there should continue to be upside for David Njoku and Jarvis Landry, though the passing game isn't really the focus here by any means
  • This is probably the best spot to use Nick Chubb all year and he's my top priority if I have the money to spend at the position
  • The Texans pretty much got there on the back of Mark Ingram? Which is unlikely to happen again, so it's pretty easy to fade them in all formats

Again, no preferred lineup construction here. I love Nick Chubb. Have a chub for Chubb, if you will. He's a very good play this week.

Colts vs. Rams (Rams -3.5, O/U 48)

General thoughts: Paris Campbell is inactive, so it's going to be a lot of targets for Zach Pascal, Michael Pittman, and Jonathan Taylor. I think people will talk themselves into one of Pascall or Pittman, and I'm fine with them, but I don't think they are that valuable either. The Rams looked fantastic week one and will likely be in control of this one.

  • Darrell Henderson came away from week one with a significant marketshare of the backfield with Sony Michel basically being inactive, so he's a very good play in all formats
  • Especially considering the field is all over Rams stacks this week, Henderson is a good leverage play as well
  • It's worth noting that Van Jefferson had a higher snapshare than Robert Woods in week one, which could well be nothing, but it gives credence to a Stafford/Kupp/Jefferson stack in GPPs which should be different than the field
Preferred Roster Construction

As mentioned, I prefer using Henderson rather than stacking the Rams, but both are viable on this slate and if you stack them using Jefferson is my favorite way to do it. You can swap Pittman for Pascal, they are basically a coin flip.

Steelers vs. Raiders (Steelers -5.5, O/U 46.5)

General thoughts: Though the O/U on this game is pretty low, I think there's a lot of shootout potential. Both teams have a high adjusted pass rate coming out of week 1 and have very clear target trees to take advantage of. What's more is that stacking this game lets you directly leverage the Najee Harris chalk, and y'all know I'll all about that.

  • You can stack up either side, but the Raiders side seems like the best one to back
  • With no Josh Jacobs I think they are likely to be more pass heavy in the redzone than they typically want to be and the QB/TE/WR/oWR with Waller and Renfrow as the LV stack side is awesome
  • The Steelers side is good because if they score a bunch through the air it completely nullifies Harris in the backfield
Preferred Lineup Construction

For someone like me that aims to leverage the field with nearly every lineup I build, the Steelers side is just too good to pass up. This will definitely be a direction that I take with one of my lineups.

Jaguars vs. Broncos (Broncos-6, O/U 45)

General thoughts: Love this game in GPPs and think the Broncos are a really sneaky high upside stack. You can go with QB/WR/TE/oWR with a really low cost and thanks to the pace of play of the Jaguars and the injury to Jerry Jeudy, there should be a bunch of opportunity to take advantage of.

  • Vegas doesn't like Courtland Sutton (VPM model is low on him) but I think that's overreacting to week 1. His aDOT was still really high and the opportunity should be more in this spot
  • For the Jags, Urban Meyer is dumb, but if he's going to be dumb in a way that lets them pass the ball 45 times a game it's going to be good for fantasy
  • Though Melvin Gordon had that huge run in week one, there's really no upside for the RBs on either side here thanks to very high adjusted pass rates in the redzone for both teams.
Perferred Roster Construction

I don't think there's any reason to deviate from that construction. It's a very easy base and checks all the bases in GPP construction as well as allowing you room for upside at RB. Definitely want to include this as one of my stacks.

Bears vs. Bengals (Bears -1, O/U 47)

General Thoughts: This game doesn't have a bunch of upside with Andy Dalton continuing to start. Neither side really wants to pass a lot as evidenced from their week one adjusted pass rates. There is upside in individual players like JaMarr chase and Allen Robinson, but I prefer to keep it at that.

  • Worth mentioning that Joe Mixon had awesome usage and that should continue in this one. He's a good play in the price range

No Preferred lineup construction here, just like Mixon for the most part. I could also get behind a Chase/Robinson secondary correlation if you wanted to go that route.

Panthers vs. Saints (Saints -3.5, O/U 47)

General thoughts: Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey. I don't see this game being some wild shootout with the Saints mostly wanting to reign in Winston and not let him get too crazy and the Panthers being very forward with their intent to just feed CMC.

  • DJ Moore is an alright one off here with high upside on his route tree
  • No Saints WR really established themselves as the alpha in week one, and we might get a nice flop lag spot on Marquez Callaway

No preferred lineup construction, though I do think that a secondary correlation stack of McCaffrey/Kamara is spicy and something that would be great to use if you could afford it.

Jets vs. Patriots (Patriots -6.5, O/U 43.5)

General thoughts: Damien Harris, mostly. I don't mind going with some Corey Davis from the Jets, but this game is basically just Damien Harris.

Leave a Reply