NFL DFS Week 10 Thoughts and Notes

Going to be doing things a bit differently today and talking through the good and bad plays at each position rather than jumping through game-to-game. Let me know if y'all like this format more or less than the typical slate breakdown!

Quarterback

The Good: Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan/Dak Prescott

Herbert and Brady are high upside options that end up being really expensive with their stacking pieces while Wilson, Ryan and Prescott give you a bit more breathing room
All of these guys are on teams that want to pass for touchdowns and should be where you focus your stacks
You can add Aaron Rodgers to this list as well, though his stack doesn't work out as well as the others and you can get Davante Adams as a secondary correlation pretty easily without having to use Rodgers
Preferences will be on Wilson, Ryan, and Brady for me

The Bad: Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield

Murray has been mostly hamstrung by an offense that has been ultra efficient and because of it his upside isn't necessary for them, while Cousins and Mayfield are both on run first offenses without any rushing TD equity
Cousins might end up being kind of popular, which I think makes sense, but he's like the 10th QB I would want to use today
Mayfield is only interesting because of the chalk on D'Ernest Johnson, but I don't think that this game is a shootout (or at least it doesn't profile that way) so I prefer to just avoid most of the situation

Running Back

The Good: Cordarrelle Patterson, D'Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette

I think when you look at the way this slate builds, the cheap RBs are kind of a trap and the midrange is still well underpriced and underowned relative to their upside in GPPs
This list of RBs all have solid marketshares of both the rushing and receiving work on their teams as well as being used in the redzone and four of them have the benefit of being used regardless of the gamescript or situation, so it's a very safe group with ceilings as well
The one RB that I kind of want to involve here that I'm a bit apprehensive on is Michael Carter, who had two games of 20%+ targetshare but then crashed down to earth, where as if he ends up getting that targetshare again he's about $1k underpriced on draftkings and a slamdunk play

The Bad: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Mark Ingram,

McCaffrey I think is too expensive because I don't believe he will go back to being a total bellcow after spending a bunch of time on the IR over the last couple seasons, and Cook is too expensive only relative to the slate overall
Ingram is a trap on a team that is paying Taysom Hill six billion dollars and he will get vultured at least once
The name missing from both of these lists is D'Ernest Johnson, who is going to be the most popular play on the slate, and it's because he's a contextual play
I don't mind Johnson if you have a contrarian stack and need some salary savings but I also think he's going to be vastly overowned based on the circumstances and the uncertainty around the Browns capacity in this spot
I have no issue with Johnson, but he's not going to be the first person you plug into your lineups, is my point

Wide Receiver

The Good: Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf

For the most part, I think the WR ownership and options are pretty straight forward
You are pairing Adams/Metcalf into your stacks in GB/SEA, you are using Evans/McLaurin in your game stacks for that game
For values, I think that Donovan Peoples-Jones is going to be a solid play again and am really into Michael Gallup as a low owned option in the ATL/DAL stacks coming off IR
There's really not much mroe to say for WRs since it's almost entirely based on who you are stacking for me

The Bad: PIT receivers, Stefon Diggs

Mason Rudolph is bad
Diggs is overpriced
Yeah

Tight End

The Good: Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Ricky Seals-Jones, Gerald Everett, OJ Howard, Jared Cook

Kyle Pitts and Dallas Goedert I think can stand alone in your lineups but the rest are entirely depending on who you are stacking and pairing with your QB

The Bad: Pat Freiermuth, Dalton Schultz

Muth isn't going to continue to demand the same snaps and targets with Ebron back, I'm not really sure why people would think that he does
With Gallup back Schultz will go back to around 10% of the targets, which is okay! But not good enough for the price

Defense

Just play who fits, but it's also worth putting down in writing that you should almost always be using a defense against teams that are pass heavy
More pass attempts lead to more chances for sacks and interceptions which are all that matter for DST in fantasy