NFL DFS Week 12 Thoughts and Notes

Quarterback

The Good: Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert

Focusing a lot on teams that have high expected passing TD expectations here with these three QBs being at the top of that metric
Don't have to worry about ownership too much here, or in general, which I will talk about a bit later with RBs
Brady is self explanatory as one of the highest upside QBs in the league
Stafford is in a game against the Packers which has a surprisingly low O/U but represents a lot of upside on a team that has specially designed passing plays in the redzone for efficiency
Chargers have multiple ways to score passing TDs through their main options and Herbert is pretty badly priced and about $800 too cheap IMO

The Bad: Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor

Garoppolo and Cousins getting any ownership is just paying the rake as that game should just be running, running, and more running with just as much running in the redzone
Why are people playing Tyrod Taylor as chalk
Has no one been paying attention to any of these teams
Weirdos

Running Back

General: There's not really any heavy chalk this week outside of Christian McCaffrey, and the other guys getting ownership are mostly fringe plays that need a lot to go right in order to pay off. We also don't have a lot of great value or a lot of great upside in the mid ranges like we have had for the majority of the season. This kind of makes me lean towards having expensive RBs with solid floors and touchdown expectations instead of trying to get lucky like I usually do.

The Good: Eli Mitchell, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook

Mitchell is just stupidly priced as he's a $7k running back when he's playing his regular role and even if you're a bit concerned about his finger recovery the low ownership mitigates the downside quite a bit
McCaffrey is McCaffrey, so, yeah
Ekeler has a fantastic marketshare of the targets for the team as well as around 60% of the rushing yards/touchdowns, so his floor and upside combo are something I want this week
Barkley is kind of the odd one out for me this week, as I think that the Giants ineptitude really hurts his floor, but his receiving upside should be the best it will be all year considering all the injuries and that's appealing at his price
As mentioned with the QBs, I expect most of the upside in this game to come on the ground, which gives Dalvin Cook all the upside I want for the price

The Bad: Myles Gaskin, James Robinson, Miles Sanders

The Dolphins suck and just grabbed Phillip Lindsay presumably because they plan to give Gaskin less work, so I'm not sure why that wouldn't start this week
The Jaguars suck and prefer to pass in the redzone, which is really bad for Robinson's upside
The Eagles maybe don't suck, but they use Jalen Hurts a lot in the redzone along with their stable of fill in RBs, and I just never like playing RBs in committee situations

Wide Receiver

General: As usual, wide receivers are dictated more by the QB you are using and less about their raw expectations. You do have to think about The price and upside associated, but most of the time you are just correlating.
This week specifically we don't have a lot of solid WR value but we do have a lot of midrange options with upside in great spots. Considering I do want to try to have at least one stud RB in lineups this week it makes sense that I won't be spending all my money at the WR portion of stacks.

The Good: Keenan Allen, Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Jones Jr.

Keenan Allen just a bit underpriced for his upside and target numbers, plus we like that game for stacking
Ja'Marr Chase has seen his numbers dip a bit after a torrid start but continues to represent the vast majority of the upside in the CIN offense with a high aDOT and large TD marketshare
Kupp is breaking fantasy this year, so if you can afford him, you should play him
Ever since his return, Jeudy has had nearly a 30/30 split of yards/touchdown for the Broncos and the price is obviously not caught up to that yet, so playing him strictly for the value makes sense
With no Agnew, there's basically no one left for the Jaguars to throw to except for Marvin Jones and the Tavon Austin brothers so I'm happy to take advantage of the best WR on the team by far

The Bad: Brandin Cooks, Chris Godwin, Deebo Samuel

Don't play Texans chalk
Godwin is fine, I suppose, but I think the ownership will be too high on him on a team that has Mike Evans as a redzone threat and Gronk returning in full health
Deebo Samuel is kind of the Jonathan Taylor of WRs, with massive TD regression coming his way as well as playing on a team that prefers to run in the redzone which hurts his upside even farther

Tight End

The Good: Kyle Pitts, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Higbee

No Calvin Ridley is going to make Kyle Pitts a priority until (and assuming) his eventual return, so his projection is no surprise at all
Gronk comes back to a 20/20 yards/TD marketshare for the Bucs in a game that looks like the best stack of the entire slate
Higbee, similar to Gronk, is part of one of the best stacks on the slate and shouldn't garner nearly as much ownership as other pieces

The Bad: Jared Cook, Evan Engram, Dan Arnold

Jared Cook just projects really badly and there are much, much better options to take advantage of on LAC
I prefer to avoid Evan Engram even understanding how short the Giants are on offensive weapons just because he has shown time and time again as chalk that he just can't demand a marketshare worthy of the ownership
James O'Shaunessy is back, so Arnold likely getting a decent chunk of his marketshare taken away

Defense

Just play who fits, but it's also worth putting down in writing that you should almost always be using a defense against teams that are pass heavy
More pass attempts lead to more chances for sacks and interceptions which are all that matter for DST in fantasy