NFL DFS Week 13 Thoughts and Notes

Quarterback

General: Seeing the majority of the ownership on Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Derek Carr along with some on Herbert and Cousins with spread out numbers on the rest. Interesting that Lamar Jackson is looking less owned considering his upside and the fact he's easily accessible even at his price. As usual, QBs are related to their stacks and it's less important to analyze them individually.

The Good: Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson

I do not want to play Russell Wilson but the models love the Seahawks and who am I to doubt them.
I'm surprised more ownership isn't getting concentrated on Lamar Jackson since he's very affordable this week, but his projection tops the models and it's easy to pair him with either of Mark Andrews or Marquise Brown while fitting the rest of the chalk around the stack.
Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford have the highest passing TD expectations on the slate along with the highest ownership, but both have options in their passing trees that can help differentiate you from the field.
Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow facing off should be fire and building a game stack there gives you all the upside you can need.

The Bad: Gardner Minshew, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins

It's fair to say that Minshew has a good mustache, but his actual football skill is less valuable than what Hurts can bring to the table and this offense will likely look just downright awful since it's not built for a QB like Gardner.
The Cardinals offense has been muted for weeks now and I don't think anything changes with him coming back on an ankle at 80%.
The Vikings are a run first team and especially so with no Dalvin Cook (Weird, I know) so Cousins upside just isn't going to be there most weeks.

Running Back

General: We can expect there to be a lot of ownership on some of the cheaper and more mid range RBs (Sony Michel and Antonio Gibson are likely to be 30%+ in all formats) which is going to lead to the high end RBs having solid ownership as well since there won't be any problems fitting them.
I also suspect that people will be playing RB in the flex more than they usually do this week because of this roster construction path. Realistically, this roster construction is going to be more right than wrong and being different with your stacks, TE, and DST is going to be more fruitful than trying to fade some of the super obvious RB chalk.

The Good: Sony Michel, Eli Mitchell, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson

With no Darrell Henderson (he's doubtful) it's going to be the Sony Michel show and he is, without hyperbole, $2,000 underpriced for the role he will have. Just plug him in and get different elsewhere.
Remember when I said Eli Mitchell is a $7k running back last week and this week he's still just priced at $6,000 and yeah you get the idea.
The Colts play the Texans and Jonathan Taylor is having an absolutely out of his mind season. Contextually, this slate plays well towards using him since he is more affordable than previous weeks thanks to the value we have elsewhere, so playing him won't mean sacrificing upside.
With no JD McKissic we have to assume that Antonio Gibson will have an increased role in this spot and he's priced nicely to take advantage of it. I do have my reservations here, as the coaching staff has not given him a bellcow role and they did bring up Smallwood who has a very similar skillset to McKissic, but all of this in consideration he's still worth the risk if you are in that price range.

The Bad: David Montgomery, Najee Harris, Saquon Barkley

Playing an RB with Andy Dalton and Matt Nagy at the helm is just not in the cards for me.
The Steelers went from being the Najee Harris show to utilizing him significantly less as they try to ride the arm of retiring Roethlisberger into the sunset, so he's just vastly overpriced at this point.
Saquon's ceiling is likely so low that Glennon's neck has to bend down to fit under it.

Wide Receiver

The Good: Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Marvin Jones

I'm a bit…. concerned? That the Seahawks offense is projecting so well, but you have to assume that Russ Wilson is going to figure it out sooner rather than later and Lockett has been his main focus over the last couple of weeks.
Keenan Allen has like 50 targets over the last five weeks and just hasn't been able to cash in with touchdowns, but regression is on his side and it's a fantastic spot today for him to find his ceiling
Cooper Kupp is, indeed, kupping the cooper.
While I think Kirk Cousins lacks upside nearly every week, the same can't be said for Jefferson who projects as a top 5 player at the position and demands a 30/30 marketshare of the yards and touchdowns in the passing offense.
Laviska Shenault isn't going to be the one keeping the jags in games, so it's pretty easy to continue to default to Marvin Jones as the upside piece in this offense.

The Bad: Chris Godwin, Hunter Renfrow, Michael Pittman Jr.

Godwin is fine in all formats but just has so little realistic TD upside that nearly all of his ceiling is dependent on volume and a shootout, so against the Falcons where the Bucs are expected to roll them it's hard to think the volume is going to be huge.
No Darren Waller would expect to bump up the usage for Renfrow but it's already really high and it's more likely that the offense experiences a bit of a drop of efficiency if anything, so Renfrow is likely a bit overpriced.
Pittman has been taking a bit of a backseat in the offense lately and this spot doesn't exactly scream “passing upside”.

Tight End

General: As usual, wide receivers and tight ends are dictated more by the QB you are using and less about their raw expectations. You do have to think about The price and upside associated, but most of the time you are just correlating.
This week we do have one very important consideration in Foster Moreau, who is filling in for Darren Waller and his exceptionally valuable role in the Raiders offense. He projects very well and will be 30%+ owned in all formats. In builds that don't feature a TE as part of the stack he's a very easy plug and play.

The Good: Foster Moreau, Logan Thomas, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts

As noted in the general thoughts, Foster is a plug and play option and there should be no reservations against using him in any and all formats.
Thomas came back and was relatively low usage but should be full go today against a Raiders offense that typically plays up in pace.
The Ravens facing the Steelers should set up for some decent offense and Andrews is the main beneficiary of passing touchdown upside on the Ravens with the added benefit of exceptionally low ownership.
The Falcons offense has been less than ideal but you have to assume they are in another game script this week where they need to play catch up in the second half which plays well into the upside Pitts provides.

The Bad: Mike Gesicki, TJ Hockenson, Evan Engram

With Devante Parker back, Gesicki will be even less of a priority than he was before
The Lions, man, they suck.
No Daniel Jones means that Mike Glennon's neck will be starting, so it's a massive downgrade to the entire Giants offense.

Defense

Just play who fits, but it's also worth putting down in writing that you should almost always be using a defense against teams that are pass heavy.
More pass attempts lead to more chances for sacks and interceptions which are all that matter for DST in fantasy.