NFL DFS Week 14 Thoughts and Notes

Quarterback

General: Lots of ownership condensed on Taysom Hill, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert for different reasons on each. No ownership on Lamar Jackson which is nice and people seem to be off Derek Carr in a perceived shootout. Overall you basically have to pay up at QB this week since they are in the only games worth stacking.

The Good: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott

Main note here is that Justin Herbert isn't in the list, and that's mostly because I don't see the Giants being able to compete whatsoever. The other games have some shootout potential or good floors, and for the price Herbert doesn't make sense too me.
Josh Allen and Tom Brady are the exact same play, but I do lean the Allen side since I think the Bills are the better team here.
Mahomes has had some touchdown regression hit him but this is the exact same (or worse) Las Vegas team that allowed him to throw 5 touchdowns a couple weeks ago. I think his ownership will be lower than both Brady and Allen and his upside is the same.
Prescott is the cheap option I like today as the game stack options in that matchup are nice and allow for a lot of interesting builds with shootout potential.

Running Back

General: People are going to be taking shots on some of the RBs in committees today and I'm no exception. Who the fuck breaks the slate between Jermar Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike? Idk man, but one of them will. Overall I think the correct route here is pairing a high end RB with a cheap lotto ticket one and just letting it ride.

The Good: Antonio Gibson, Leonard Fournette, Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs

Gibson is a $7.5k receiver with this workload especially with no Wendell Smallwood active. Just plug and play in any lineups that doesn't have a Cowboys stack.
Fournette has been getting a massive 20%+ targetshare over the last four weeks and a dominant amount of the rushing work. He's still not priced effectively and should be the most expensive RB on the slate.
Ekeler, similarly to Fournette, has a massive targetshare that should only increase with no Keenan Allen active. The only reason he isn't a lock and load is that the Chargers are not really a run heavy team in any regard, so his workload there is lacking a bit. But he's my favorite option on the slate.
Jacobs has seen a 20%+ targetshare and had 9 receptions last week (highest of his career) and they are in another gamescript where that should be relevant. He's probably a $7k RB with this workload and is an easy play in any lineup that isn't a Chiefs stack.
Notice a trend in these RBs?

Wide Receiver

General: As usual, wide receivers and tight ends are dictated more by the QB you are using and less about their raw expectations. You do have to think about The price and upside associated, but most of the time you are just correlating.

The Good: Stefon Diggs, Mike Williams, Zay Jones, Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin

That game between TB/BUF should be fireworks, so both Diggs and Godwin are likely priorities.
I will note, of course, that Mike Evans is valuable as well but significantly less so than Godwin.
Mike Williams is a really good option with no Keenan Allen but you don't need me to tell you that.
Zay Jones got all the targets that the model expected last week and just didn't convert, so there's no downgrade on his upside in this spot either. He's the nuts cheap play.
Tyreek Hill as an option that I think ends up underowned because people won't be going with Chiefs stacks is very enticing.
Another cheap option that I think is really valuable today is Byron Pringle, who has taken over as the WR2 in that offense and has a high aDOT and plenty of relative upside.

Tight End

The Good: Whoever you want, mostly

It's a pretty unique week where the TE position is actually kind of lit and you have a lot of useable options in all price ranges.
The top end is fine with Andrews, Kittle, and Kelce topping the models and all valuable as raw points options.
Foster Moreau is going to be low owned because people are silly.
James O'shaughnessy is a good cheap option with Gerald Everrett and Austin Hooper.
Just play the best projected one that fits your needs to stack with your QB, it's really not a big deal this week.

Defense

Just play who fits, but it's also worth putting down in writing that you should almost always be using a defense against teams that are pass heavy.
More pass attempts lead to more chances for sacks and interceptions which are all that matter for DST in fantasy.