NFL DFS Week 15 Thoughts and Notes

Quarterback

General: QBs are for stacking. If you have a rushing QB like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or something you can combine them with just one of their receiving options and it is fine, but typically you want to either go QB/WR/WR or QB/WR/TE to maximize the upside of your QB.

Slate specific: Because of how low the Vegas implied team totals are, the projections for QBs are pretty low outside of the high upside options of Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. Granted, Lamar Jackson would be a part of the high upside group if he were to play, but I'm assuming he's out. For the most part this slate comes down to the auxiliary pieces that you include in stacks and the QB is just a formality.

The Good: Kyler Murray, Josh Allen

You are basically forced to have a Cardinals and Bills stack on this slate (or one of the two, if you only build one lineup) since Murray and Allen project so much better than anyone else available.
Why do people keep playing Jimmy Garoppolo?
Trevor Lawrence projects pretty well and should have significantly less ownership than Tua and is similar price and skill level.
Aaron Rodgers doesn't really project well, but if he's going to be low owned I think you have to kick the tires on a Packers stack.

Running Back

General: Typically RB is a spot that you want a priority of high team totals along with heavy rush presence in the redzone on a team that is a large favorite since it implies a good rushing gamescript. We also find a lot of the value on slates at the RB position when starters miss time, so make sure you pay attention to that kind of thing before slates lock.

Slate specific: This slate is a bit weird, because every RB projects like shit. The chalk options are especially bad outside of James Robinson and I think there's no reason to eat multiple pieces of chalk at the position. Look at the models and find some lower owned options that entice you and go wild.

The Good: Cordarrelle Patterson, James Robinson

I mean just look at the projections here. Nobody projects over 16 fantasy points! That's hilarious!
Craig Reynolds was “The Guy” for the Lions last week, and the models have picked up on that, but I would not say that I'm overly confident in that position. It's just as likely that Igwebuike or Jefferson pick up the lions share of work.
AJ Dillion and his meaty quads have taken over the lead role from Aaron Jones? I guess?
I am surprised that Myles Gaskin projects so badly and am higher on him than the models are, for sure.
What the fuck is this slate. lol

Wide Receiver

General: As usual, wide receivers and tight ends are dictated more by the QB you are using and less about their raw expectations. You do have to think about The price and upside associated, but most of the time you are just correlating.

Slate specific: For this slate specifically, WR is the position to pay up for over RB by a long shot. It's a really interesting week with a lack of high end RBs which gives us very low projections across the board for the position, thus spending on WRs is going to help increase your median expectations. Pushing for a WR in the FLEX is something I would suggest.

The Good: Stefon Diggs, A.J. Green, Diontae Johnson, Tee Higgins

There are very few “good” games today and a lot of massive favorites, but the massive favorites are basically all teams that have RB situations that are lackluster, which means that the WR/TEs on those teams are at a premium.
The Cardinals and Bills receiving options are most valuable and for the most part affordable, which is going to lead to higher ownership on them. It's totally fine to eat that ownership so long as you are getting a bit different at RB or your secondary correlations.
Diontae Johnson has had double digit targets in something like 80% of the games that he has completed, so he is a great option as well in both a Steelers stack and as a secondary correlation with Julio Jones.
Tee Higgins is a baller, dude.
Some other options I didn't mention that are good are Davante Adams, Gabriel Davis, and for those of you that have some true GPP spirit in you, Kenny Golladay.

Tight End

The Good: George Kittle, Mike Gesicki, Dawson Knox, Pat Freiermuth

Kittle and Gesicki are the chalk options, but there's pretty good reason behind them being higher owned for the most part and differentiating at TE doesn't seem super necessary this week.
That said, the projection difference between Gesicki, Knox, and Freiermuth is not enough for the projected ownership difference so that's going to be a very easy swap if you need to find some leverage in a lineup.
Mark Andrews projects well but the uncertainty behind Lamar Jackson makes me a bit wary of the situation and I think you can spend better elsewhere.
Some cheap options worth looking at are James O'Shaughnessy and Evan Engram, but I do think that paying into the midrange is better with TE this week.

Defense

Just play who fits, but it's also worth putting down in writing that you should almost always be using a defense against teams that are pass heavy.
More pass attempts lead to more chances for sacks and interceptions which are all that matter for DST in fantasy.