NFL DFS Week 17 Thoughts and Notes

Quarterback

General: QBs are for stacking. If you have a rushing QB like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or something you can combine them with just one of their receiving options and it is fine, but typically you want to either go QB/WR/WR or QB/WR/TE to maximize the upside of your QB.

Slate specific: Happy Trey Lance chalk day, to those who celebrate! I won't be playing him (in GPPs), but I'm thankful for those who will. Interestingly Tom Brady doesn't project in the elite tier this week even with one of the higher passing TD expectations on the slate. I likely prefer to get my exposure to the Bucs through one offs of Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski but hey if I land on a TB stack I'll never be mad about that.

The Good: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Tyler Huntley, Dak Prescott

Cardinals stacks (specifically Kyler/Kirk/Ertz) I think will be way undervalued this week in a good spot even though the pricing works out perfectly for this slate.
Josh Allen, he is good for fantasy, mostly.
Huntley has been nearly as good as Lamar from a fantasy standpoint but you are getting a massive discount on that production this week. I much, much prefer him to Trey Lance in GPPs.
The Cowboys continue to be cheap with upside and it's worth continuing to take shots on them. However! the risk is certainly there in choosing one of the wrong three receivers that all have nearly equal upside.

Running Back

General: Typically RB is a spot that you want a priority of high team totals along with heavy rush presence in the redzone on a team that is a large favorite since it implies a good rushing gamescript. We also find a lot of the value on slates at the RB position when starters miss time, so make sure you pay attention to that kind of thing before slates lock.

Slate specific: It's pretty straight forward this week as the pricing on RBs is especially good so we aren't really finding many big opportunities to get a leg up on the field. The chalk options all project reasonably well, though there are a lot of pivots that fit in the same price ranges so you can be different if you would like. If you do choose to be different at RB, you're going to be very leveraged over the field since there's no heavy WR chalk, so keep that in mind for smaller field tournaments. I personally will likely eat quite a bit of the RB chalk here since I plan on being very different at WR.

The Good: The chalk options, Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Rashaad Penny

The chalk options (David Montgomery, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, and Jonathan Taylor) all project pretty well and are worthwhile options in all formats. I don't think there's any need to fade any of them based on leverage or format, but I don't think that you need to have them either. Personal preference here.
Ekeler walking into a position with the Chargers as strong favorites should afford him plenty of ceiling especially considering the RB workload that Justin Jackson got last week in his absence.
Mixon is an incredible play when the Bengals play with the lead, but they are facing the Chiefs this week, hence his low ownership. I'm not super stoked on playing him in this spot, but if the Begals have a lead at any point we can expect him to get fed.
Why is Rashaad Penny not chalk, again? Dude has been insane for the Seahawks and getting massive volume and they play at home against a Lions squad that couldn't beat the YMCA all-stars.

Wide Receiver

General: As usual, wide receivers and tight ends are dictated more by the QB you are using and less about their raw expectations. You do have to think about The price and upside associated, but most of the time you are just correlating.

Slate specific: We have another week where I think game correlations (i.e. using a receiver from the other team as a comeback) is a bit unnecessary if you are stacking huge favorites, and there are value plays available that I think make more sense as one offs. In the “Good” WRs I left out Cooper Kupp because it's Cooper Kupp and you should just know that he's a good play, but yeah he's a good play if you can afford him. Mostly I want to focus on home run hitters at WR this week since I'll be eating a lot of chalk at RB.

The Good: Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs

Yeah Antonio Brown had a fucking 52% target share last week. lol He won't have that again, probably, but he is still underpriced if that's even in the cards with Brady at QB.
Speaking of targets, Marvin Jones had 13 of them last week and the Jaguars are still massively undermanned at receiver, so it's hard to think he comes in any less valuable. I love him as a one off option on this slate.
Mclaurin is someone that is always relatively underpriced for his ceiling and this week is no exception. Obviously, the QB play is not great, but he's had ceiling games this year in similar situations. No Antonio Gibson is an indirect boost as they'll need playmakers to make this one even remotely close.
Diggs is just where you start with a BUF stack, and with the news that we don't have Sanders available it makes Diggs that much more valuable. Pairing him with Gabriel Davis is a very easy route towards a reasonably priced stack.
One guy I didn't mention in the “Good” is Courtland Sutton, who should have a Marvin Jones type situation. Bad QB, but huge target share. He's another guy I'm looking at for home run upside.

Tight End

The Good: Mark Andrews, Noah Fant, Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski

Mark Andrews is closing in on the TE receiving record? Which is crazy. He's the #1 option to go with Huntley if you are making that stack and is the top projected TE by a mile on this slate.
Fant should end up benefitting from the same situation that puts us on Courtland Sutton, as the Broncos are in a projected trailing script and have very little talent at receiver available.
The Cardinals look to be undervalued (as mentioned with Murray above) so taking the shot on Ertz after a big week is a solid option in all formats.
With no Chris Godwin and a (potentially) limited Mike Evans, it's another great spot for Gronk.

Defense

Just play who fits, but it's also worth putting down in writing that you should almost always be using a defense against teams that are pass heavy.
More pass attempts lead to more chances for sacks and interceptions which are all that matter for DST in fantasy.