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NFL DFS Week 3 Thoughts and Notes 09.26.2021

Rams vs. Bucs (O/U 55.5, Bucs -1)

General Thoughts: This game is going to garner a bunch of attention and likely be one of the chalkiest ones to stack overall. There's no Antonio Brown, which is going to jump up the target share for Godwin and introduce some Tyler Johnson into the passing game. People are going to be chasing the Cooper Kupp performances from the first two weeks, but Robert Woods is the better play. No Darrell Henderson means that Sony Michel should end up with a vast amount of the rushing work on a Rams team that likes to run the ball in the redzone making him one of the top RB plays in the lower range.

  • Top Plays: Chris Godwin, Sony Michel, Robert Woods
  • Top Fades: Cooper Kupp
Preferred Lineup Construction

Chargers vs. Chiefs (O/U 54.5, Chiefs -7.5)

General Thoughts: Should be the most popular game to stack by a decent amount, but the pricing makes things pretty difficult. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to be popular, but just hasn't been enough of a priority on offense to be someone that you should be prioritizing at presumably high ownership. Although the Chiefs project… miles better than the Chargers, I prefer a Chargers stack with Kelce instead since it allows you to play more than pure punt values at other positions while capturing the game environment just as well.

  • Top Plays: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler
  • Top Fades: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Preferred Lineup Construction

Seahawks vs. Vikings (O/U 54.5, Seahawks -2)

General Thoughts: Dalvin Cook is out, so Alexander Mattison should end up as “The guy” for the Vikings, though not to the extent that people expect. I would think that Ameer Abdullah is worked in on passing downs and Mattison gets around 60% of the total rushing work. The Seahawks project like gods again, they are a viable stack without a doubt. the better way to play this game is stacking the Vikings to leverage the Mattison chalk and I prefer Metcalf instead of Lockett who I think should come down to earth a bit in this spot.

  • Top Plays: Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson
  • Top Fades: Alexander Mattison
Preferred Lineup Construction

Cardinals vs. Jaguars (O/U 51.5, Cardinals -7.5)

General Thoughts: Both these teams have wanted to be pass heavy to start the year and the Jaguars are kind of an under the radar team to stack with because of it. DeAndre Hopkins is going to play through a rib injury, which makes him slightly less appealing. Neither side has running backs I'm interested in. The best way to attack this is with a Murray/Kirk stack (Hopkins injury) and bringing it back with Marvin Jones or DJ Chark based on preference.

  • Top Plays: Kyler Murray, Marvin Jones Jr.
  • Top Fades: None
Preferred Lineup Construction

Ravens vs. Lions (O/U 50, Ravens -7.5)

General Thoughts: The Ravens are having COVID issues, which is making people think that the Lions are a good play in DFS because the defense will be softer, but defense doesn't matter and the Lions are a run first team. This game should be mostly running between both sides with DeAndre Swift being the most attractive option in that regard with Marquise Brown being the sole receiver I have interest in. Lamar Jackson is always in play.

  • Top Plays: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown
  • Top Fades: None
Preferred Lineup Construction

Falcons vs. Giants (O/U 47.5, Giants -2.5)

General Thoughts: The Falcons look really bad and Matt Ryan looks retired while the Giants have this weird identity with a great rushing QB and a coach that hates his QB. So. Idk. Daniel Jones projects exceptionally well for his price and with Kenny Golladay ailing we can expect Shepard to continue being the top option by far, which makes a Jones/Shepard stack very attractive in GPPs. I guess people like Mike Davis? But like, Cordarrelle Patterson is there. Saquon is a really nice play for his price and I think he has a lot of upside even with a relatively low median.

  • Top Plays: Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard
  • Top Fades: None
Preferred Lineup Construction

Colts vs. Titans (O/U 47, Titans -4.5)

General Thoughts: I'm not exactly sure why Carson Wentz is playing with two sprained ankles. It would seem ankles are somewhat important to… stand. And run. Or whatever. Jonathan Taylor is the best play in this game by far with Derrick Henry being popular and the Colts likely shying away from a passing attack due to their hobbled QB. I don't blame anyone for going with Derrick Henry instead, but if you do make sure you are being different and gaining a good amount of leverage with your stacks.

  • Top Plays: Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry
  • Top Fades:

No preferred stack

Washington vs. Bills (O/U 45.5, Bills -7.5)

General Thoughts: Neither one of these teams have been all that pass happy this year in the adjusted sample, but WA has loved passing in the redzone and that makes this spot a bit intriguing. I think people are kind of low on the Bills after some let down weeks and this is a good spot to jump back on a full stack at low ownership. It helps that you can use Terry McLaurin as a gamestack piece and have a lot of upside as well. Only other consideration is Antonio Gibson, but with how often WAS wants to pass in the redzone his upside is limited.

  • Top Plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Terry McLaurin
  • Top Fades: None

Bears vs. Browns (O/U 45, Browns -7.5)

General Thoughts: Justin fields starting is a better real life thing than DFS thing, and neither me nor Vegas have a lot of confidence in him being worthwhile to start. Jarvis Landry is out, which means that OBJ should be the alpha in an offense that doesn't want to throw the ball. Interestingly Anthony Schwartz projects really well as a value WR as well, so if you need some salary relief he is an option. Realistically there's nothing worth doing in this game outside of a secondary stack with OBJ and one of Robinson/Mooney.

  • Top Plays: Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham Jr.
  • Top Fades: Justin Fields

No preferred stack

Dolphins vs. Raiders (O/U 45, Raiders -3.5)

General Thoughts: Fun fact – The Dolphins and the Raiders have been the second and third highest pass rate teams in the league in the adjusted script through the first two games! And they play each other! that's fun. And a fact. The only question you really have to think through here is your approach to Will Fuller in his first game for the Dolphins. My guess is that him and Devante Parker are mostly a coin flip, but it's a hard one to reconcile. Regardless, start with Carr/Edwards/Waller and make that decision later based on salary or what have you.

  • Top Plays: Darren Waller, Bryan Edwards
  • Top Fades: None
Preferred Lineup Construction

Saints vs. Patriots (O/U 43.5, Patriots -3)

General Thoughts: Kenny Stills is active for the game today and Lil'Jordan Humphrey is not, so that's kind of interesting, but NO has been extremely conservative and the upside for any of the WRs involved is going to be minimal at best. Damien Harris again finds himself in a really good spot for a large workload and continues to be a bit underpriced. Alvin Kamara, is, of course, Alvin Kamara. There's kind of this side of me that thinks pretty soon the Saints are going to unleash Winston and let him sling it, so I do have a bit of interest stacking here, but not enough to add it to my pool. Just play Damien Harris or Alvin Kamara and move on.

  • Top Plays: Damien Harris, Alvin Kamara
  • Top Fades: None

No preferred stack

Bengals vs. Steelers (O/U 43, Steelers -2.5)

General Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with his 47th sustained injury of the last three years and I expect the gameplan to be really conservative in lieu of that. Tee Higgins is out and The Bengals have been a team that just absolutely does not want to pass the ball, so a healthy dose for Joe Mixon should be on the docket again. Him and Najee Harris are going to be the top overall options in this game with very little else being appealing.

  • Top Plays: Joe Mixon
  • Top Fades: None

No preferred stack

Jets vs. Broncos (O/U 42, Broncos -10.5)

General Thoughts: The Broncos are 10.5 point favorites on the road. Lmao

  • Top Plays: Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant
  • Top Fades: None

No preferred stack

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