Eagles vs. Chiefs (Chiefs -6.5, O/U 54.5)
Best plays: Chiefs stacks, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Best fades: Eagles stacks
General Thoughts: As I've been writing, it turns out that Lane Johnson has been ruled out. The Eagles offense is going to be a mess and it makes this decision really easy: Just fade them all. I don't mind using just Devonta Smith or Jalen Reagor as a comeback for Chiefs stacks but I don't even think the Chiefs stacks will need to score enough to pay off the pieces. So, outside of using Kelce or Tyreek as a secondary correlation with Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert I'm likely fully off this game.
- With how bad I expect the Eagles to be it makes CEH at least a decent option based on potential gamescript.
- The best option is probably a Kelce/Smith secondary correlation as part of another higher upside spot.
No preferred stack
Rams vs. Cardinals (Rams -4.5, O/U 54)
Best plays: Christian Kirk, Robert Woods, Darrell Henderson Jr.
Best fades: Cooper Kupp
General Thoughts: This game should be really high octane between two offenses that certainly know how to score, the hard part is going to be parsing through the options and who to play. The beta boy answer is Cooper Kupp and Deandre Hopkins, while the sigma chad answer is Robert Woods and Christian Kirk. But the other option is Darrell Henderson and Tyler Higbee. I'm sure it won't be tilting at all!
- Kupp isn't going to hold a 30%+ share of the fantasy points all season, and I'm willing to keep firing on Robert Woods until it corrects.
- I do have concern for Deandre Hopkins as both Christian Kirk and AJ Green have been more valuable and Hopkins has been relegated to possession receiver.
- Darrell Henderson is one of the best RB plays on the slate and will possibily be in all of my lineups as he's likely $1,000 too cheap.
Cowboys vs. Panthers (Cowboys -4, O/U 51.5)
Best plays: Ceedee Lamb, Robby Anderson, Chubba Hubbard
Best fades: None
General Thoughts: This is kind of an awkward spot for me because both of these teams have had average to above average defenses this year (I know, the Cowboys, but believe me) and so the total being this high is a bit odd but with the Cowboys offensive firepower I certainly understand why it's where it is. No CMC means that Chubba Hubbard will take the lions share of the RB work for the Panthers and makes for a good option in DFS. There's a lot of chalk on all the main options here, so however you end up stacking you are going to have to get different with your secondary options if you want to create leverage in your lineup.
- DJ Moore is projecting at twice the ownership of Robby Anderson, so I prefer Anderson in tournaments
- Chubba Hubbard projects badly but likely won't be chalk walking into this spot so he's worth a shot in a very valuable role.
Vikings vs. Browns (Browns -1, O/U 51.5)
Best plays: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr.
Best fades: None
General Thoughts: The over/under in this game is super fucking weird because neither one of these teams wants to push the pace and we can expect whoever gets a lead to rush the ball and not play risky. Of course, both sides have weapons in Justin Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr., and if it does end up being a shootout it's easy to guess where the ball is going.
- Realistically the best play in this game is Dalvin Cook as a direct pivot to Derrick Henry at nearly half the projected ownership.
- I don't mind secondary stacks of OBJ and Justin Jefferson if you have the salary to pull it off.
- If you do feel like stacking this game, I prefer stacking the Vikings side since they are slightly less run heavy in the redzone and actually give their receivers upside in that regard.
No preferred stack
49ers vs. Seahawks (49ers -2.5, O/U 51.5)
Best plays: DK Metcalf
Best fades: None
General Thoughts: The 49ers are right back to being a nightmare to project, with the workload being spread from the top to bottom and even involving the FB and backup QB as a meaningful piece of the redzone offense. You literally can't feel confident in using any piece of that offense at this point. The Seahawks look like the Seahawks, but don't have Gerald Everett here so we should see some more targets for Will Dissly who is going to be pretty popular today.
- I'll always prefer DK Metcalf to Tyler Lockett since I like home runs more than I like ground rule doubles, but both are in play.
- Chris Carson continues to project pretty well, also a fine play in all formats
- The only reason I have Aiyuk as the stack piece in the preferred combo is because his ceiling is a bit higher than Samuel and Dissly is cheaper and should be just as involved as Kittle.
- Sermon might end up being trendy? But projects very badly, so that's an easy pass.
Falcons vs. Washington (Washington -1.5, O/U 47.5)
Best plays: Taylor Heinicke, Logan Thomas, Terry McLaurin
Best fades: Kyle Pitts, Mike Davis
General Thoughts: This game is actually super interesting for DFS because of how much of a runner they have let Heinicke turn into. Now, that running is at the detriment of Antonio Gibson, but do we really care about that? I do not. It gives Heinicke a great floor and ceiling for his price and allows us to treat him like a poor mans Josh Allen. For the Falcons, I am still very concerned in their upside as a team since Ryan is bad and the play calling is bad but hey Ridley is still getting lots of targets and that's nice for a DFS perspective.
- The WAS stack should be way low owned and have just as much upside as some of the other more popular spots and is definitely something I am prioritizing today.
- As noted, with the rushing work for Heinicke we are seeing a big hit to Antonio Gibson's workload, but he still projects alright for the price if you feel like using him
- Kyle Pitts can't get targets and I think we need to consider that it's a him problem. Getting targets is a skill and he might not have it yet, so fade until he proves he can.
Bills vs. Texans (Bills -17, O/U 47)
Best plays: Bills stacks
Best fades: None
General Thoughts: This is pretty simple: Bills stacks or fade. It's really easy to just go Allen/Diggs/Sanders/Cooks and move along. But even then, I'm no prioritizing this spot much.
- Bet the Texans to cover the spread
Packers vs. Steelers (Packers -6, O/U 45)
Best plays: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones
Best fades: Najee Harris
General Thoughts: My bold call here is that Ben Roethlisberger doesn't even finish this game because the guy is just falling apart. I have a lot of concerns (and have had them since the offseason) on this team's ability to stay healthy enough to be effective through the season and that's already rearing it's ugly head. The Packers, on the other hand, are healthy-ish with just MVS missing and he's relatively easily replaced by Allen Lazard. Packers should be in control nearly the whole game which sets up well for their offense.
- Speaking of being in control, Aaron Jones is one of my favorite plays on this slate. He projects really well, is in a decent price range, and shouldn't have too much ownership.
- On the other side, Najee Harris is going to be subject once again to a harsh O-line with no other threats to take the pressure away. Yeah, he might get 10 targets, but if the offense can't move it doesn't matter.
- With no Chase Claypool there's reason to think that Juju and Diontae Johnson get more targets, but again, effectiveness matters with stuff like that and although their floors have increased I'm not sure the ceilings are affected.
No preferred stack
Jets vs. Titans (Titans -6, O/U 44.5)
Best plays: Chestor Rodgers?
Best fades: Derrick Henry
General Thoughts: The Titans are missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones, which is not great! It basically leaves them with a handful of backup WRs and Derrick Henry. I understand that they are playing the Jets, who sucks, but that doesn't really inspire much confidence for me to think they can move the ball and score effectively. The Jets are missing Elijah Moore but get back Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims? So? Yeah. They are the Jets.
- The Derrick Henry fade is more about the Titans having little ability to trust the receivers on the team than it is a fade of his workload. I do think he sees 20+ carries and maybe eclipses 100 yards rushing, but how often are the Titans going to be in the redzone? That's where my concern is.
- I think you can use Chestor Rodgers or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine if you feel so inclined though neither is a better play than somebody like Allen Lazard.
No preferred stack
Saints vs. Giants (Saints -6, O/U 44)
Best plays: Kenny Golladay, Alvin Kamara
Best fades: Evan Engram
General Thoughts: The Giants are really thin at WR this week with so many injuries so Golladay should have all the work that he can handle. In fact, going back to a Giants stack here with Jones/Golladay as a skinny and bringing it back with Alvin Kamara is a very interesting and unique way to think about this game. The Saints side sucks because they want to be a run first team with Jameis at the helm which like… why?
- Saquon Barkley has been really, really unimpressive to start out the year and the usage has been underwhelming, so I have no interest there
- Evan Engram is really cheap and might be involved here to a large degrree, but I think with the way this offense has been hamstrung I don't feel confident in him as an option especially with other TE options that have more defined roles
- Jones/Golladay/Kamara is a really cool build to start with this week
Broncos vs. Ravens (Ravens -1, O/U 44)
Best plays: Lamar Jackson, Courtland Sutton, Marquise Brown
Best fades: None
General Thoughts: There was a lot of Q's involved in this game through the week but for the most part everyone is playing that has been involved so there's not a lot to worry about there. The Ravens only bein -1 is hilarious. Marquise Brown dropped about 30 fantasy points last week and should have similar opportunity for upside in this spot as well.
- The combo of Brown and Sutton is one of my favorite on the entire slate and though I may not have a Ravens stack I will certainly have them as a secondary somewhere
- Noah Fant and Mark Andrews are fine targets as well, and making any combo of Fant, Brown, Sutton, and Andrews is going to be fine with me
- Lamar Jackson is the best play in this game and should come in at exceptionally low ownership
Dolphins vs. Colts (Dolphins -2.5, O/U 42)
Best plays: None
Best fades: None
General Thoughts: the Dolphins weren't worth a damn in DFS with Tua at QB and that doesn't change with Brissett in there. the Colts spread the ball around to a million different options and none of them individually have a lot of upside. This game is mostly a deadzone.
- The only interesting piece here is Jonathan Taylor, and it's hard to trust his usage and redzone involvement
- I don't mind using him but he's not a priority by any means
No preferred stack
Bears vs. Lions (Bears -3, O/U 42)
Best plays: David Montgomery, D'Andre Swift
Best fades: None
General Thoughts: Matt Nagy is apparently handing over play calling responsibilities to Bill Lazor, which should in theory be an upgrade to an offense that has been dead in the water all season. With Justin Fields starting there's reason to be optimistic in the upside here but the downside remains. The over/under on this game is putrid and it's likely we see a lot of game management from both sides.
- David Montgomery is fine, D'Andre Swift is fine, but I'm not in love with either
- Stacking is a no go in this game since neither offense is especially high powered and as mentioned with Fields starting we should see more game management than anything
No preferred stack
Cash Core:
- Derrick Henry
- Cooper Kupp
- D.J. Moore
- Davante Adams
- Will Dissly