NFL DFS Game Theory Report
Hello, my name is David Hess and I do coaching here at PayDirt. This post follows my thoughts as a whole on roster construction and what's important for this weeks NFL DFS slate. We will take a look into the different popular options and some of the ways you could leverage them to get an advantage. If you like what you read here, be sure to look into booking a coaching call (click here) to improve your process no matter what level of DFS player you are.
Main Points:
- There are no slam dunk cheap RB's like we saw last week, leading to more high priced running backs being popular.
- Mid range wide receivers look to be getting the most early ownership, but isn't as concentrated as some other weeks.
- Seattle is the projected highest owned stack of the slate. Their ceiling is higher than expected, but not as consistent as the truly elite offenses in the league.
- Baltimore is an elite offense in a slump with their #1 wide receiver returning currently clocking in at half the ownership of Seattle.
For conversation and game theory on the slate, as well as updates to ownership, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Most popular NFL DFS plays for week 7:
Popular DFS Running Backs:
Kenneth Walker III: Ownership: 35% || Projection: 14.57 || LevX: -8.17%
Josh Jacobs: Ownership: 35% || Projection: 23.02 || LevX: +14.14%
Dameon Pierce: Ownership: 17% || Projection: 20.68 || LevX: +20.45%
Outside of Kenneth Walker, all of the top 5 running backs in ownership are 7k or more in salary. The lack of other cheap options this week probably keep Walker at the top with considerable ownership. However, that doesn't make him inherently a bad option. Walker would be direct leverage on the popular Seattle stack and has seen a consistent role. Pivot options include Breece Hall or Josh Jacobs, who have similar ceilings but are a little more pricey.
Popular DFS Wide Receivers:
CeeDee Lamb: Ownership: 21% || Projection: 17.32 || LevX: -9.39%
Tyler Lockett: Ownership: 20% || Projection: 17.80 || LevX: +0.02%
Drake London: Ownership: 15% || Projection: 16.10 || LevX: +2.03%
11 out of the top 15 projected wide receivers in ownership range between $5,000 and $7,000 of salary meaning mid range wide receivers are going to be by far the most popular construction in lineups. Most of your Wide Receivers are going to be parts of your stacks, but there are 2 great ways to leverage the ones that aren't. Playing Mid range receivers that are projected similarly with lower ownership or spending up on someone like Davante Adams.
Speaking of Adams, he has the 5th highest projected ceiling on the slate, while currently only projected for 9% of ownership. Similarly, Jamar Chase has the highest projected ceiling on the slate while being projected under 10% ownership as well. That makes spending up on receivers while everyone else goes mid range a viable strategy.
Popular Stack Construction: Seattle
Just because a stack is highly owned doesn't mean you cannot play it and still make a good lineup. In this situation, the most popular combination looks to be Geno Smith/Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf. The stack has a salary of $18,000 and ownership of 50.47% along with a projection of 56.97 fantasy points. Lockett is the most popular receiver for SEA as mentioned above. If you fade him for Metcalf and another option like Fant at tight end, your stack end up being different but with similar upside. The other option, of course, is to take an entirely different stack.
Leverage Stack Construction: Baltimore
Another route to leveraging the field is to take a less popular stack with a similar ceiling, in this case Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The optimal stack here consists of Jackson, Rashod Batemen and Mark Andrews gives you a salary of $20,600. This is a more expensive stack than SEA but with only 25.36% ownership as the tradeoff with a similar projection of 57.79 fantasy points.
NFL DFS Closing Thoughts:
Using the information here, the most popular build looks to be Geno Smith with 2 high priced running backs such as Saquan Barkley and Leonard Fournette, Lockett, Metcalf and another mid priced receiver and a punt tight end. Our leverage example would look something like Lamar Jackson, Kenneth Walker, Ezekiel Elliott with Batemen, a high priced receiver and Andrews. Its important to remember that when leveraging the field you aren't sacrificing ceiling in the name to be different. Make smart choices that make sense while still giving you a potential edge