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NFL DFS Week 7 Thoughts and Notes 10.24.2021

Titans vs. Chiefs

Best Plays: Chiefs stack, Darrell Williams
Best Fades: Derrick Henry

General Thoughts: Insert the usual Chiefs statements here (Expensive but obviously a top stack on the slate) while also inserting the usual Derrick Henry statements (High leverage fade on a gamescript dependent back). If this game is close or in favor of the Titans, Derrick Henry should eat. If the Chiefs have a solid lead and continue to push, Henry likely fails especially considering the price.

That said, the best leverage here is going to be Darrell Williams, who would benefit from a Chiefs lead gamescript while directly and indirectly leveraging the Henry chalk which would be more likely to fail in that scenario. Either way, the right way to play this game in GPPs is the Chiefs side whether you stack them up or use Darrell Williams. Dealers choice there.

Preferred stack

Rams vs. Lions

Best Plays: Cooper Kupp/Robert Woods, Darrell Henderson
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Rams are hilariously large favorites here at -16 and playing at home, so starting most lineups with Darrell Henderson Jr. is probably fine. They also have the highest team total on the slate, so stacking them is fine as well! Stacking is obviously a bit more difficult as you have to think through the Kupp vs. Woods situation, though the more likely thing you will do is run a Stafford/Kupp/Woods lineup. At any rate stacking the Rams is a good move in all formats.

The Lions are unique in that they have a RB you want, D'Andre Swift, when you are considering a game stack correlation. The ceilings on the actually receiving options are pretty low, but Swift is priced relatively low and gets a significant portion of both the rushing and receiving work, so using him in the gamestack is fine. You can also consider Hockenson but…. eh.

Preferred stack

Packers vs. Washington

Best Plays: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin
Best Fades: Ricky Seals-Jones

General Thoughts: Interesting spot here because the Packers are always a solid stack and we actually have another true alpha WR on the other end with Terry McLaurin this time! However, we also have Aaron Jones at a good price at home as a -11 favorite over a team that has had a lot of inconsistency in moving the ball, so you kind of have to make a choice on which way you go here. My lean is towards Jones over a Packers stack, but going with something like Rodgers/Adams/McLaurin as a skinny stack gives you a lot of flexibility in other options.

Another route is going with Rodgers/Jones/Adams/McLaurin and capturing all the upside of the game, though the ceilings for Jones and Adams are typically negatively correlated and it's hard to capture for large field tournaments. Prefer a skinny stack or using Aaron Jones instead.

Preferred stack

Dolphins vs. Falcons

Best Plays: Cordarrelle Patterson, Calvin Ridley, Mike Gesicki
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: The price on both Patterson and Ridley is too low, and it makes things pretty interesting here for GPPs. I think both of these teams suck, but the Falcons are extremely pass heavy overall and in the redzone and their main threats (Ridley/Patterson/Pitts) are all going to be in play because of it. Patterson is projecting really low owned, which is wild, because he projects as well as ultra chalk Darrell Henderson in the models, making him a phenomenal pivot.

For Miami, idk man, Tua isn't very good right now. He might never be very good. But the team passes a lot and the dolphins options are cheap. If Devante Parker is ruled out, Jaylen Waddle becomes a good options. If not, Mike Gesicki is the best options you have. In any case the over under is pretty good here and stacking this game makes a lot of sense especially if you stack the Falcons side and including Patterson.

Preferred stack

Raiders vs. Eagles

Best Plays: Quez Watkings BABY, Jalen Hurts, Henry Ruggs III
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: People are pretty low on this game for a couple reasons but I personally love it and the models think it is one of the best stacks in GPPs. These are both teams built on a strong passing foundation and the Raiders came out and showed a more play action heavy style last week with no Jon Gruden at the helm, which only helps their upside. With no Zach Ertz for the Eagles, the passing tree should narrow out a bit and give us some more clarity and upside on the individual pieces to go with the upside of Jalen Hurts. Oh, and there's hardly any ownership on this game so you can surround it with as much chalk as you want.

The ringer here is Quez Watkins, who has entirely surpassed Jalen Reagor as the WR2 on this team and is getting the best targets available. He's super cheap and pairing him with Hurts and Goedert in a full stack is going to allow whatever else you want in GPPs. With Darren Waller either out or limited, I much prefer Henry Ruggs III or Hunter Renfrow as the correlation piece here and those would be the two that I would use in a Raiders stack if you choose that route. But this game is awesome and you should have exposure.

Preferred stack #1
Preferred stack #2

Bucs vs. Bears

Best Plays: Bucs stacks, Leonard Fournette, Darnell Mooney? I guess?
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: With Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski ruled out, the target tree should be really narrow for the Bucs here and Chris Godwin should see a large uptick in workload. Mike Evans, of course, is going to have a large workload as well but he was already a strong play to begin with. So the Bucs stacks are fully in play here with a Brady/Evans/Godwin pairing. Issue is the Bears have some really low upside in their current form, so it's hard to think that they have anyone you can feel confident bringing back, but I suppose it would be Mooney if anyone since he has the highest upside on the team.

If you aren't doing a Bucs stack, using Leonard Fournette is a solid route in all formats. He's the defacto lead option in that backfield and the Bucs are massive home favorites (there's a pattern this week with viable RBs btw). Also, I think people will continue to be low on OJ Howard but he had seven targets last week and there's no reason that can't continue with Antonio Brown out.

Final thought, I don't think I want to do a bring back game correlation here. Mooney is fine but I think there are better options on this slate for the price.

Preferred stack #1
Preferred stack #2

Cardinals vs. Texans

Best Plays: Chase Edmonds/James Conner, Zach Ertz, Brandin Cooks
Best Fades: Stacks

General Thoughts: Hey look another absolutely gigantic home favorite. Guess what that means? That's right! Play a running back from this game. Of course this game is a bit more difficult since there is a split going on here, but the projections significantly favor Chase Edmonds and that would be the way that I go. Outside of that situation, I don't love the Cardinals. They haven't been all that fantasy friendly this season for stacks. However, I do think Zach Ertz is really intriguing since I believe others will play a wait and see game there and I think he is pretty involved right at the start. Playing him with Brandin Cooks as a secondary correlation would be the only pass catching circumstance I want a part of here.

No preferred stack.

Ravens vs. Bengals

Best Plays: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, Ja'Marr Chase
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Pretty interesting spot here. The over/under isn't especially high at 45.5 but the spread is close for a Ravens home game and both of these teams have some home run hitters at receiver so there's fireworks to be had. With even more injuries at RB for the Ravens, we will see some mix of Devonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell, and Ty'Son Williams with Freeman being the “Lead” back who is really, really cheap for a lead back in this offense. However, with all these injuries it's not insane to think that the burden just falls on Lamar to pick up the rushing slack. For the Bengals we have a healthy roster with both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins being the main upside options.

My preference here is probably a secondary stack with Brown/Chase but the gamestacks here are no less appealing. I definitely want the Ravens side with Lamar being such a higher upside option than Burrow, so going with a Jackson/Brown/Andrews/Chase stack would be my preference. If you don't like this game as much as I do, I still think taking a look at Devonta Freeman as a cheap option in a high octane rushing offense makes sense.

Preferred stack

Giants vs. Panthers

Best Plays: Chuba Hubbard, Sterling Shepard
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: The Panthers offense has looked pretty pitiful but that could just be variance (Robby Anderson 11 targets for 11 yards is pretty unlikely to happen again). The Giants are just a braindead organization ran by Neanderthals that think analytics are for losers. This game is likely a deadzone.

The only options I really like are Chuba Hubbard and Sterling Shepard. Hubbard has been the undisputed option in the backfield and is in a spot against a team that has issues doing anything at all on offense, so his opportunity shouldn't be lacking here. Shepard is an alpha WR with no help on a team that is missing their feature RB and will be as pass happy as ever. That said, I like Hubbard as a lone option in this game and if you are feeling spicy you can go with a Robby/Shepard secondary correlation and take advantage of no ownership on a huge targetshare combination.

No preferred stack.

Patriots vs. Jets

Best Plays: Nope
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Nah.

No preferred stack.

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