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NFL DFS Week 8 Thoughts and Notes

Colts vs. Titans

Best Plays: Colts stacks, A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry
Best Fades:

General thoughts: With no Julio Jones, AJ Brown should have as much work as he can handle while the secondary receiving options work for scraps. Derrick Henry will continue to be a freak of nature. The Colts have been really good over the last couple weeks and I don't think that people have been paying attention to it. Wentz looks really good and having TY Hilton back makes that passing attack pretty legit. They are a really nice upside stack on this slate with an easy bringback.

the only player in this game I'm not into is Jonathan Taylor because his workload just isn't there. Sure, he's gotten there, but I think variance turns away from him soon enough.

Preferred stack

Chargers vs. Patriots

Best Plays: Mike Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Keenan Allen
Best Fades:

General thoughts: the Patriots have been a top 10 team in adjusted pass rate in the last couple of weeks and their upside is considerably better than it was to start the year. the Chragers with Mike Williams are one of the best passing attacks in the league. This game has a good ceiling that I don't think is being considered when we look at the ownerships involved.

Something I did on the stream last night was put together two stacks: One of Herbert/Williams/Meyers/Cook and one of Mac/Meyers/Williams/Jonnu and the Patriots stack actually projected better, cost less, and had less ownership. So I do think they are heavily in consideration for me in all formats.

Austin Ekeler is going to play and should drop right into his regular RBWR workload. He's an okay option in stacks though if you do use him it has to be Herbert/Ekeler/Williams since Allen needs volume and Ekeler will eat into that.

Preferred stack #1
Preferred stack #2

Bills vs. Dolphins

Best Plays: Stefon Diggs, Devante Parker, Zack Moss
Best Fades:

General thoughts: Bills are gigantic favorites here over a Dolphins team that is floundering and looking to trade their young developing QB. Dolphins have been the pass heaviest team in the league in the recent sample and top 5 since the start of the season. There is upside here even if the Bills shred the Dolphins since there's no circumstance where the Dolphins decide to be run heavy. The only downside is if the Bills get out to such a big lead they stop passing and just run.

So if you are considering both scenarios, You are either going to stack with Allen/Diggs/Sanders and bring back either Parker or Gesicki (my lean is Gesicki, probably) or you are going to use Zack Moss as a cheaper RB option. Both should be on the table and a Bills stack should be a priority today.

Preferred stack

Lions vs. Eagles

Best Plays: Eagles stacks, Kalif Raymond, D'Andre Swift
Best Fades: Kenneth Gainwell

General thoughts: This is one of my favorite games as I still think people are underestimating what Jalen Hurts can do in fantasy even though he's been consistently fantastic. He has the same upside as Lamar Jackson any given week based purely on his massive involvement in the redzone as a runner and passer. the single problem is that he isn't actually very good at throwing the football and it causes inconsistency. On the other side, the Lions suck, but D'Andre Swift has been very valuable for fantasy with a WR1 workload along with a solid rushing allotment. He's the main comeback option in stacks, though Kalif Raymond is valuable there and saves salary.

The preference here is stacking the Eagles with a Hurts/Watkins/Goedert combo and returning with either of Swift or Raymond based on salary needs. You can go with Hurts/Watkins/Smith as well, though I think that's a bit thinner. The big thing here though is fading Gainwell. He's probably the worst chalk that I can remember this year.

Late note: Jamaal Williams ruled out, obviously a big boost to D'Andre Swift who will now be the highest owned player on the slate.

Preferred stack

Saints vs. Bucs

Best Plays: Bucs stacks
Best Fades:

General thoughts: This is likely a similar spot to last week, with me having not much interest in the Saints but having a lot of interest in the Bucs. It's fair to say that MArquez Callaway is a solid comeback to Bucs stacks after maintaining a solid workload last week even with Tre'quan Smith returning, though it remains to be seen how much the Saints actually want to pass the ball. They have been one of the run heaviest teams in the league all year and with the acquisition of Mark Ingram I'm not sure why that would stop.

The Bucs on the other hand just want to keep adding stats to Brady's resume and it's showing. They just keep passing and pass in the redzone and feed him touchdown passes. So just throwing together a Bucs stack with Brady/Evans/Godwin or Brady/Godwin/Gronk is going to be fine with me and I don't have a lot of interest in forcing a Callaway bringback unless necessary.

If you aren't sold on a Bucs stack, Fournette is a fine option at RB this week. Kamara should get hurt pretty badly by Ingram being added to the team, so I have no interest in him.

Preferred stack

Falcons vs. Panthers

Best Plays: Corderralle Patterson, Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley
Best Fades:

General thoughts: This is a pretty high upside spot but it's contingent on a couple things, the main being that Darnold needs to be able to connect with Robby Anderson and DJ Moore and not be a pumpkin. The Falcons MO has mostly been the same this year, with an emphasis on Calvin Ridley and Corderralle Patterson as the main parts of the passing attack along with Kyle Pitts now being useable in fantasy. Should the Panthers not be awful here there's a lot of ceiling to exploit.

Other note here would be that Chuba Hubbard continues to have an awesome workload though it's been a bit underwhelming. His price is still fine and he's usable if you aren't stacking this one.

I said on stream yesterday that I thought one of the most interesting things on this slate would be stacking the Falcons in a QB/RB/TE build and fading Calvin Ridley. It gives you a really unique path towards stacking other upside spots and allows you leverage as well. The preference there would be Ryan/Patterson/Ridley with either of Anderson/Moore as a come back.

Late note: Calvin Ridley ruled out, giving significant boosts to Kyle Pitts, Patterson, and Russell Gage. Pitts likely exceptionally high owned now.

Preferred stack

Texans vs. Rams

Best Plays: Darrell Henderson, Cooper Kupp
Best Fades: Matthew Stafford

General thoughts: This game is pretty cut and dry! The Texans are a joke, and the Rams are very good. Darrell Henderson deserves to be the highest owned player on this slate and Cooper Kupp will likely be a bit too highly owned overall. I don't like stacking much here because the Texans are just fucking awful, but if you do, I think you have to do it with Stafford/Kupp/Woods and just hope for a lot of explosive passing plays.

The only Texan in consideration is Brandin Cooks and I'm not even interested there. No need to use any Texans on this slate.

No preferred stack.

Broncos vs. Washington

Best Plays: Terry McLaurin
Best Fades:

General thoughts: Jerry Jeudy coming back from injury is a good thing in real life for the Broncos who have a pretty solid offensive stable now. However! It's terrible for fantasy. It kills off the upside for Courtland Sutton and spreads the wealth to a wider target tree on a team that couldn't afford that. There's now no useable pieces for the Broncos outside of MME low exposure shots.

Washington is still dealing with some injuries but have problems of their own for upside. They are an easier team to stack with Terry McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones being a nice combination for upside, though them on the road traveling west against one of the harder teams to beat at home isn't awesome. My preference here is using Terry McLaurin or Ricky Seals-Jones as one offs.

No preferred stack.

Seahawks vs. Jaguars

Best Plays: DK Metcalf, Marvin Jones Jr., Jamal Agnew
Best Fades:

General thoughts: The Seahawks have not shown any ability to succeed with Geno Smith at QB and Pete Carroll is kind of showing his ass when it comes to coaching without an elite QB to bail him out. The Jaguars are not a good team, but this game is a toss up and the higher upside stack is actually on the back of Trevor Lawrence. Especially because Geno has only really shown an ability to hook up with Metcalf it makes for an easy stack situation.

My preference is going with Lawrence/Jones jr./Agnew and coming back with DK Metcalf since that eats up a lot of the upside both teams have to offer. It's not a priority stack but if you end up with 20-30 lineups or more I don't mind mixing that in there. The more likely scenario for me is going to be secondary stacks using some combo of Metcalf/Jones jr./Agnew.

No preferred stack.

Jets vs. Bengals

Best Plays: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Best Fades: Joe Mixon

General thoughts: Look I want Joe Mixon to be a feature back as much of the rest of you but it's just not going to happen no matter how big of favorites the Bengals are. And he doesn't get receiving work on a consistent basis so what are we even doing here making him chalky? Pretty obvious fade IMO.

Bengals being massive favorites here doesn't feel great but I understand it. Jets missing Wilson and Corey Davis doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. I prefer stacking the Bengals here and hoping they lay the hammer through the air to blow them out and going with a Burrow/Chase/Higgins combo with Denzel Mims as a return if I feel so inclined, though I'm not sure I even want to stack this game under the circumstances of the slate. The best reason to stack is to leverage Mixon chalk, and if I do put it together that's the main reason why.

Preferred stack

Browns vs. Steelers

Best Plays: Nick Chubb, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson
Best Fades:

General thoughts: I said on stream yesterday that I though the best way to do this game is by using Nick Chubb and Najee Harris together since they have have a very high marketshare of the touchdowns for each of these teams and I haven't wavered on that. The Browns will continue to be an exceptionally run heavy team and the Steelers will continue to substitute their running game with short passing. Should be a pretty low upside game.

Diontae Johnson should end up getting a massive workload again this week and is fine as a one off. There is a way you could stack the Steelers with Ben/Najee/Diontae but I'm not sure the upside Roethlisberger actually has so I'll likely stay away from that. overall I like secondary combos of Chubb/Diontae/Najee more than anything else here.

No preferred stack.

Bears vs. 49ers

Best Plays: Eli Mitchell
Best Fades:

General thoughts: The Bears are, of course, a travesty. The 49ers are, of course, boring as hell. One thing of note here is that Matt Nagy will not be in attendance here, so maybe the Bears look better without him? I think that's a stretch but you can use that as justification of some Darnell Mooney or Allen Robinson shares if you would like.

Most likely outcome here is the 49ers controlling the game and Eli Mitchell being the best fantasy option in the match.

No preferred stack.

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