Posted on Leave a comment

NFL DFS Week 9 Game Theory Report

Hello, my name is David Hess and I do coaching here at PayDirt. This post follows my thoughts as a whole on roster construction and what's important for this weeks NFL DFS slate. We will take a look into the different popular options and some of the ways you could leverage them to get an advantage. If you like what you read here, be sure to look into booking a coaching call (click here) to improve your process no matter what level of DFS player you are.

Main Points:

  • The most popular running backs are in the 6-7.5k range, making the higher ceiling expensive running backs good leverage.
  • The field is instead paying up at wide receiver with 3 of the top 5 over 8k.
  • Buffalo is once again the highest owned stack but is most likely a little overvalued compared to other elite options.
  • Miami is another expensive, elite option that has at least as much upside and is alot less owned.

For conversation and game theory on the slate, as well as updates to ownership, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Most popular NFL DFS plays for week 9:

Top 20 players on the NFL DFS slate in terms of highest projected ownership along with their leverage scores from Paydirt
Top 20 players on the NFL DFS slate in terms of highest projected ownership along with their leverage scores from Paydirt

Popular DFS Running Backs:

Travis Etienne: Ownership: 26% || Projection: 20.74 || LevX: +14.73%

Rhamondre Stevenson: Ownership: 24% || Projection: 23.77 || LevX: 22.15%

Josh Jacobs: Ownership: 20% || Projection: 27.69 || LevX: +29.56%

Most of the highly owned running backs fall right into the 6-7k range. Fournette fits there but isn't seeing near the ownership and provides good leverage. The other option is to pay up for someone like Dalvin Cook or Jonathan Taylor. Of course sometimes, playing the chalk really is just the best play especially at running back. All 3 of the highly owned running backs showing positive leverage despite high ownership shows this.

Popular DFS Wide Receivers:

Stefon Diggs: Ownership: 18% || Projection: 19.3 || LevX: – 8.4%

Michael Bandy: Ownership: 20% || Projection: 7.9 || LevX: – 10.8%

Tee Higgins: Ownership: 7% || Projection: 16.3 || LevX: +1.34%

Most of the highest projected owned receivers this week are top tier options. Guys like Hill, Kupp and Diggs will be on a combined 48% of the fields rosters. This leaves high leverage options such as Amon Ra and Tee Higgins in the mid range as great leverage pieces.

Michael Bandy is the definition of bad chalk and his high ownership leaves a lot of solid pivots low owned. Sammy Watkins is a direct pivot in the price range or you can get leverage by building an entirely different roster construction with no cheap receivers.

Popular Stack Construction: Buffalo

Just because a stack is highly owned doesn't mean you cannot play it and still make a good lineup. In this situation, the most popular combination looks to be Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis. To differentiate yourself you could fade Diggs for someone cheaper and pay up for someone like Justin Jefferson instead. You could also play Allen, Diggs and Singletary even though he isn't a traditional pass catching back to be different.

Leverage Stack Construction: Miami

Another route to leveraging the field is to take a less popular stack with a similar ceiling, in this case Tua and the Dolphins. The optimal stack here consists of Tua with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle which is pricey at $22,600 but pays off with a projection higher than Buffalo's. Mooney as part of this stack also makes an interesting pivot in that range.

NFL DFS Closing Thoughts:

Using the information here, the most popular build looks to be Josh Allen with 2 mid ranged running backs, Diggs, Davis and Bandy with a high upside mid priced tight end. The direct thought process of leverage here then falls on Diggs and the lower owned, high priced options and on Knox and if he can outperform the chalky tight ends. Your other potential option is to fade Bandy. With many ways to get different this is chalking up as a nice GPP slate.

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

Leave a Reply