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NFL DFS Week 9 Thoughts and Notes

Ravens vs. Vikings

Best Plays: Game Stack, Dalvin Cook
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Great spot here especially since Sammy Watkins got ruled out. The entirety of the scoring in this game comes down to some combo of Lamar/Brown/Andrews/Bateman/Jefferson/Thielen/Cook and the stacks come together very nicely. Going with a Ravens stack makes more sense with the ceiling of Lamar and an easy connection with both of Brown/Andrews. Going with the Vikings side is more difficult, since pairing Thielen/Jefferson doesn't work out as often and eats into itself.

I don't mind using Dalvin Cook here if you aren't stacking. The game total is really high and somebody is going to score, so if you think that it's not a shootout you should have a lot of interest in Cook. He makes for a great leverage piece as well, so in lineups where I am not stacking this one I want to prioritize him.

Preferred stack

Eagles vs. Chargers

Best Plays: Game Stack, Austin Ekeler
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: You can mostly stack this game any way you want, I'm not sure that I have a lean. There are cheap options on PHI to go with the expensive options on LAC. You can use Ekeler in your stack no matter if you stack the Eagles or the Chargers. Both QBs have massive upside. It's just a really good game to focus on.

This is the game I suggest for single entry and is the best gamestack on the slate.

Preferred stack #1
Preferred stack #2

Cowboys vs. Broncos

Best Plays: Ezekiel Elliott, Albert Onyutyftdckhbkuybjk
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Broncos get Jerry Jeudy back but now lose Noah Fant to COVID protocols, so it'll be next man up Albert Oanljandfakjng who will likely be chalk. The matchup is good and the team total is fine, so there's opportunity here to directly leverage the field playing Albert Oauifvhaelikurng with either or both of Sutton or Jeudy. For the Cowboys, they are the Cowboys, and it's Cooper, Lamb, or Shultz that is useful in stacks.

Ezekiel Elliott is a priority for me at an affordable pricetag for someone with his workload. I don't think that the Broncos are some formidable offense and the Cowboys don't actually want to pass a lot, so if the Broncos can't make them it should end up being a great game for Zeke.

Overall you can definitely stack this game. It's got a high O/U and some easy to assume target trees. My issue is not thinking the Broncos can really push the Cowboys to their ceiling, and I prefer to just take Zeke and solve the RB question instead. Secondary stacks of Cooper/Lambe/Schultz/Sutton/Jeudy/Ojauianlrefkane are obviously fine too.

Preferred stack

Jaguars vs. Bills

Best Plays: Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Jamal Agnew
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: The Bills mostly project like trash even with a high total because of how the team has been delegating workload and being such heavy favorites. the Jaguars went from being one of the pass heaviest teams in the league to one of the lower ones, though that may have had something to do with James Robinson seeing an increased workload and he's out today. If you are looking to stack this game, the obvious side is the Bills with Allen/Diggs/Sanders and a return of either Marvin Jones or Jamal Agnew depending on how much salary you have.

With no James Robinson Carlos Hyde is a viable low cost RB that has solid workload projections, but the Jaguars suck and y'all know my usual rule: Don't play running backs on teams that suck. I much prefer Zack Moss if I'm using any RB in this game.

The only thing I want here is a secondary stack of Sanders/Agnew. Not interested in stacking it.

No preferred stack.

Chiefs vs. Packers

Best Plays: Tyreek Hill
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Jordan Love is starting over Qanon Rodgers this week, so the entire Packers offense should come out dull. However, I think there's going to be enough of an ownership discount on Davante Adams that he is worth the risk in GPPs. Especially if you can pair him with either of Hill or Kelce since it's super expensive and very, very few people go that route. If you do end up doing that I would suggest eating a bunch of chalk elsewhere since you won't need the leverage in other spots.

With no Robert Tonyan, the Packers will use a committee approach to TE, so I'm not interested in any of those pieces at all.

Aaron Jones projects well and Darrell Williams projects fine, but I don't really care for RBs in this game. The Packers presumably want to be a bit more run heavy but the Chiefs typically don't allow stuff like that to happen.

No preferred stack.

Bengals vs. Browns

Best Plays: Bengals stacks, Donovan Peoples-Jones
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: With no OBJ, Donovan Peoples-Jones is the weird projection of the week thanks to a big aDOT and projected increase in usage. I am fine taking a shot on him at the price and ownership but wouldn't force him into every lineup. Bengals stacks are, of course, much more attractive than Browns stacks here since the Browns are so run heavy in the redzone. The cookie cutter of Burrow/Chase/Higgins fits well and isn't overly expensive with the comeback of Peoples-Jones.

If you think the Bengals come out flat, Nick Chubb will have basically no ownership and has 150+ rushing upside. I won't be going there but acknowledge that upside.

Stacking here is fine though I prefer a secondary correlation of Higgins/Peoples-Jones because of the price savings and upside for other stacks.

Preferred stack

Giants vs. Raiders

Best Plays: Josh Jacobs, Kadarius Toney, Darren Waller
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Giants have been one of the pass heaviest teams in the league in the last four weeks and without Barkley I expect that to continue. Las Vegas are more gamescript dependent, but will also have a condensed target tree with no Ruggs. There are a couple ways to attack this game but I'm certainly interested in it Because of the prices involved and the way the targets will have to be distributed if this is a shootout.

If you aren't interested in stacking, both Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker project well for the price and are viable in all formats.

I wouldn't say this is a priority spot since the team totals here aren't especially glamorous, but with so many injuries and a clear path to upside for multiple pieces the stacks are easy to build and allow a lot of room for key players in the rest of your lineup.

Preferred stack

Dolphins vs. Texans

Best Plays: Brandin Cooks
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Well, this game did have appeal, and then Tua got scratched. Nothing worth considering here outside of Brandin Cooks.

Cardinals vs. 49ers

Best Plays: Eli Mitchell
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Cardinals likely to be without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, so that's a significant hit to one of the most consistent offenses in the league. should that happen it'll be Colt McCoy starting and a healthy boost in workload to Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz with Rondale Moore likely getting a small bump. Andy Isabella would be in line for more playing time, but isn't really someone that has ever been good for DFS.

Eli Mitchell and George Kittle are both dealing with injuries. Kittle will be on a “pitch count” though that kind of thing is super arbitrary in the NFL. His presence will hurt Samuel and Aiyuk, but we don't know how much. Mitchell may end up missing this game, but it's a late start and so we won't know until later.

That being said!

You can still slot in Mitchell and just plug in whoever starts instead if he gets ruled out since all his replacements are cheaper. He's the only priority in this game, so plugging him in and just being ready to swap out later is fine.

No preferred stack.

Saints vs. Facons

Best Plays: Cordarrelle Patterson
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Trevor Siemian vs. the husk of Matt Ryan! Fun. With no Calvin Ridley we can continue to expect to see Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson be the featured options in this offense. The Saints still don't really have any upside in the passing game and who knows how Siemian will affect Kamara. It's an odd spot with a low total that we can mostly just ignore.

If you want exposure here, going with a secondary stack of Patterson/Kamara is my preference. They take up a large amount of the upside for the respective offenses and are a unique pairing.

No preferred stack.

Panthers vs. Patriots

Best Plays: Jakobi Meyers
Best Fades:

General Thoughts: Nah.

No preferred stack.

Cash Game Core:

  • Amari Cooper
  • Albert Oasdjilnauiwerlgna
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Ezekiel Elliott
  • Myles Gaskin
  • Lamar Jackson

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