This week necessitates a deeper than normal dive to find players to round out your GPP lineups. While this has made my life difficult this week, it could present opportunity in GPP. The players to target this week are even further under the radar than normal and should differentiate your squad from the chalk. This also frees you up to spend freely on the great stacks available this week.
James Conner $5,500
Median/Ceiling: 9.10 – 14.61
Projected Ownership: 1.83%
James Conner has seen his usage increase in each of the last three weeks and he
seems to be the Cardinals go-to guy in the redzone. Through five weeks he has seen 15 redzone
attempts which accounts for just over 50% of all Cardinals redzone attempts compared to Chase
Edmonds’ 24%. This has led to Conner finding paydirt five times in the last three weeks, most guys with that kind of production have salaries well above $5,500, Conner is a great value even against a tough Browns defense who rank 5 th in defensive rushing DVOA. Even though Cleveland is stout against the run, I expect for the Cardinals to be able to scheme the run game open in the redzone because Cleveland will need to respect all of the Cardinals’ other offensive weapons.
Tim Patrick $5,100
Median/Ceiling: 9.95 – 22.74
Projected Ownership: 4.92%
Tim Patrick’s nine targets from a week ago only trailed Courtland Sutton for most on
the team who had 11, he also played on 95% of the team’s snaps and is the better value compared to
Sutton’s $6,200 price tag. The Raiders offense, while in a bit of turmoil after Jon Gruden’s
unceremonious departure this week, is still dangerous. I expect the Raiders to get ahead, and whenever Denver falls behind Pat Shurmur can’t help himself from going three wide and abandoning the run game. Look for Tim Patrick to stay productive this week.
Khalil Herbert $4,600
Median/Ceiling: 12.67 – 23.02
Projected Ownership: 9.05%
This one is too easy, someone has to run the ball for the Bears. Since Justin Fields began starting for the Bears they are attempting an average of 19 passes per game, and in the last two weeks Bears RBs have carried the ball over 30 times per game. All this to say that the Bears are committed to the run. The Packers are 29 th in the league in rushing DVOA, which should translate to a big day for Herbert, start him with confidence despite the potential for negative game script.
Darnell Mooney $4,300
Median/Ceiling: 9.90 – 19.40
Projected Ownership: 3.40%
Another Bears player!? I know… Unfortunately, Mooney didn’t pan out when I called on him to have a big game last week, this was mainly due to the unexpected positive game script for the Bears in week 5, they didn’t need to throw the ball. You can’t count on that this week against a much stronger Packers offense. Mooney is still commanding over 35% of the Bears air yards and while he’s yet to see a redzone target that should change this week as the Bears should be able to move the ball against a suspect Packers defense. Rest assured, Mooney’s breakout is coming.
Mecole Hardman $4,200
Median/Ceiling: 9.15 – 18.84
Projected Ownership: 6.45%
Chiefs vs WFT figures to be the highest scoring game of the week. Both teams rank in the bottom 4 in terms of defensive pass DVOA, and both teams can put up points. In the last two weeks Hardman has seen his utilization increase, in weeks 1 – 3 he had 15 targets and only 1 redzone target, in the last two weeks he matched his targets from the previous three weeks and saw 3 total redzone targets. Obviously, the Chiefs have a lot of mouths to feed but the fact that Hardman is getting more involved is encouraging. He could be in for a big day if this turns into the shootout we expect.
Notable Mention: Chris Conley $3,300
Median/Ceiling: 2.90 – 5.43
Projected Ownership: <1.00%
I’m buying Conley’s performance this last week. Mills looked like the real deal against a Belichick team that has never shown mercy to young QBs and Conley was the main beneficiary. Conley’s usage jumped from just over 75% during the first 4 weeks to 91% in week 5 while attributing for 32% of the Texans air yards, although his targets leave something to be desired, which is why Conley is a notable mention and one of the 5 under $5,500 you should target. The Texans play the Colts this week who rank 3rd in defensive pass DVOA, why wouldn’t the Texans try to recreate their passing game success from last week?