Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Caleb Williams (QB) with Tylan Hines (RB) and Will Sheppard (WR), who are both mispriced. Additionally, Smoke Harris (WR) and Charvis Thorton (RB) will also be heavily owned.
- While Caleb Williams will likely be the highest-owned player in DFS, USC doesn't project to be the top stack. Factoring in price and ownership, LA Tech looks like the top stack with Bachmeier plus Smoke Harris and Cyrus Allen. However, be mindful of playing this stack with Williams as it will likely be heavily duped.
- Kurtis Rourke looks like a natural pivot off of the heavier-owned Bachmeier. However, his rushing upside is limited coming back from an ACL injury so you'll likely want to pair him with a WR. Thankfully, Wiglusz is not only Rourke's clear #1 option, but will also be a pivot off of Singer and Smoke Harris. Lastly, you can consider MarShawn Lloyd a pivot (albeit still popular) off of his USC partner Austin Jones.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
CFB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
QB: Caleb Williams
RB: Tylan Hines
WR1: Will Sheppard
WR2: Cyrus Allen
Flex: Charvis Thornton
CFB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
QB: Kurtis Rourke
RB: MarShawn Lloyd
WR1: Sam Wiglusz
WR2: Charles Ross
Flex: Sedrick Alexander
DFS Stack Considerations
Louisiana Tech
San Jose State
Florida International
CFB DFS Final Thoughts
USC has a massive implied team total, however, they have a crowded WR room and will rotate all of them in. It would not be surprising for Caleb Williams to throw for 400 yards and multiple TDs but without a single WR going to 100 yards or multiple TDs. Due to this, there is some merit to fading a full USC stack. Additionally, the other side of this game is going under-owned despite the strong likelihood that SJSU is throwing all game. Lastly, we have a true late-night hammer with FIU versus LT these two teams met last season and produced some DFS goodness so even a full game-stack can be considered in GPPs.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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