Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership appears to focus on Ashton Jeanty (RB) boasting a dominant 92.10% DK Ownership projection. Additionally, Braelon Allen (RB) from WISC is gaining significant attention, claiming 57.20% DK Ownership despite his elevated salary of $7900. The UV receivers, Malachi Fields, and Malik Washington, with ownership of 56.70% and 48.30% respectively, are also likely to be chalk plays today.
- Purdue (PUR) is emerging as a popular stack due to the presence of players like Hudson Card (QB), Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (WR), and Deion Burks (WR), all showcasing notable ownership. Hudson’s strong median projection and reasonable salary could make PUR stacks notably popular. In GPPs, University of Virginia (UV), and North Carolina State (NCST) both deserve consideration.
- Braelon Allen will be popular, however, his volatile performances indicate a high-risk, high-reward situation given the split backfield. With a substantial portion of the field expected to jam him in, a pivot to Chez Mellusi with less ownership and salary may be the move in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
CFB Cash Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
QB: Hudson Card
RB: Ashton Jeanty
WR1: Deion Burks
WR2: Malachi Fields
Flex: Braelon Allen
CFB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
QB: Taylen Green
RB: Chez Mellusi
WR1: Nick Nash
WR2: Eric McAlister
Flex: Emmanuel Michel
DFS Stack Considerations
University of Virginia (UV)
North Carolina State (NCST)
CFB DFS Final Thoughts
The most straight forward decision point tonight is Braelon Allen. By either fading, or playing Chez as direct leverage you can potentially pass over half the field. Alternatively, Ashton Jeanty looks like chalk you should just eat. However, you can still get different with him by playing a BSU stack including Taylen Green and/or Eric McAlister. Brennan Armstrong has the highest exposure% in the contest sims and his receiver Kevin Concepcion has the highest edge% on the slate making NCST a strong GPP option.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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